The Pittsburgh Pirates (37-42) will look to Carlos Santana, on a two-game homer streak, versus the San Diego Padres (37-43) at 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, at PNC Park.
The Padres are favored away from home (-197) versus the Pirates (+164). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.
The betting insights in what follows use the latest odds as of June 29, 2023 at 11:14 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Padres vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -197 | +164 | 9 |
Padres Betting Insights
- The Padres have entered the game as favorites 58 times this season and won 29, or 50%, of those games.
- San Diego is 8-4 this season when entering a game favored by -197 or more on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Padres have a 66.3% chance to win.
- San Diego and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 29 of 80 opportunities.
- The Padres are 36-44-0 ATS in their 80 games with a spread this season.
Padres Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.5 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.29 |
| K/9 | 7.8 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have won in 25, or 41.7%, of the 60 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Pittsburgh has a mark of 2-2 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +164 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 37.9% chance of walking away with the win.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 38 of its 79 opportunities.
- In 79 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 37-42-0 against the spread.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.1 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 3.68 |
| K/9 | 7.3 |
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Padres Probable Pitcher – Joe Musgrove
- Musgrove and his team have a record of 6-5-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed six hits in seven innings against the Washington Nationals.
- Musgrove has pitched five or more innings in nine straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- In 11 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
- Musgrove’s team has been victorious in 77.8% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 7-2.
- Musgrove’s team has a 7-4 record in his starts this season.
- Games Musgrove has started this season hit the over four times in 11 chances.
Padres Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hill | 33 | 33.2 | 22 | 2.94 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Hader | 30 | 28.2 | 42 | 1.26 | 0 | 18 |
| Brent Honeywell Jr. | 27 | 39.1 | 36 | 3.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Luís Garcia | 27 | 24.2 | 25 | 5.11 | 8 | 0 |
| Nick Martínez | 25 | 58.1 | 47 | 4.01 | 9 | 1 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Luis Ortiz
- Ortiz gets the start for the Pirates, his ninth of the season. He is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA and 31 strikeouts through 45 2/3 innings pitched.
- The right-hander last pitched on Friday against the Miami Marlins, when he went eight innings, allowing one earned run while giving up seven hits.
- Ortiz has pitched five or more innings in a game six times this season entering this matchup.
- He has not had an appearance so far in 2023 that he did not allow at least one earned run.
- The Pirates are 3-4 in Ortiz’s seven starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Ortiz’s team has a 3-5 record over his eight starts.
- Ortiz’s starts hit the over on the run total four times in eight games with a set total this season.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauri Moreta | 32 | 33 | 44 | 3.82 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | 29 | 30 | 34 | 1.50 | 0 | 15 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 19 | 24.1 | 14 | 5.18 | 3 | 2 |
| Chad Kuhl | 12 | 38.1 | 31 | 8.45 | 0 | 1 |
| Angel Perdomo | 10 | 10 | 15 | 3.60 | 1 | 0 |
Padres Hitting Trends
- The Padres have a 16-15 record in games this season when they belt at least two homers.
- San Diego has gone 13-6 in its 19 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has put up at least eight hits 42 times this season, and has a 28-14 record in those games.
- San Diego is 30-4 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Padres have drawn five or more walks in 34 games this season, and are 20-14 in those contests.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They are 17-5 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Pittsburgh has gone 15-2 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 26-9 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Pittsburgh has won 23 of its 27 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In 24 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 12-12
Padres vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+164)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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