Two of the league’s best hitters face off when the Boston Red Sox (40-41) and Miami Marlins (47-34) meet at 6:10 PM ET on Thursday, at Fenway Park. Alex Verdugo has a .302 batting average (ninth in league) for the Red Sox, while Luis Arraez ranks first at .396.
The Red Sox are favored (-115) in a projected tight game against the Marlins (-105). The total for the game is set at 9 total runs.
The betting trends in the article below reference odds valid as of June 29, 2023 at 5:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -115 | -105 | 9 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- This season, the Red Sox have been favored 35 times and won 19, or 54.3%, of those games.
- Boston has a record of 16-14 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -115 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 53.5%.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 44 of 81 opportunities.
- The Red Sox have an ATS record of 39-42-0 in 81 games with a spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.8 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.55 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been victorious in 22, or 52.4%, of the 42 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- This season, Miami has come away with a win 20 times in 39 chances when named as an underdog of at least -105 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 51.2% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 36 of its 81 opportunities.
- In 81 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 39-42-0 against the spread.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 2.05 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Brayan Bello
- Bello and his team are 8-4-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up one earned run and allowed six hits in 6 2/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox.
- Bello will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- He has not pitched this season without allowing at least one earned run.
- Bello’s team has a record of 4-2 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- In games Bello has started, his team is 8-4.
- Games started by Bello have a 6-6-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 27 | 44.2 | 32 | 3.02 | 9 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 26 | 26.1 | 31 | 3.08 | 0 | 16 |
| Chris Martin | 24 | 23.2 | 20 | 1.90 | 13 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 20 | 24 | 23 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Kaleb Ort | 16 | 20.2 | 22 | 5.66 | 1 | 0 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- Luzardo (6-5) takes the mound first for the Marlins in his 17th start of the season. He has a 3.77 ERA in 90 2/3 innings pitched, with 103 strikeouts.
- The lefty’s last appearance came on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he went seven scoreless innings while giving up two hits.
- Luzardo will try to extend a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.6 innings per appearance).
- He has had two appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Marlins are 6-4 in Luzardo’s 10 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- In Luzardo’s 16 starts, his team is 10-6.
- Luzardo has had 16 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and seven of those games hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 35 | 34.2 | 45 | 2.60 | 7 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | 33 | 38 | 54 | 3.32 | 13 | 2 |
| Dylan Floro | 32 | 30.2 | 32 | 4.40 | 9 | 7 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 30 | 39.2 | 42 | 3.40 | 10 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | 26 | 27 | 38 | 2.00 | 9 | 0 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox are 16-9 this season in games when they crush two or more homers.
- Boston is 16-8 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has strung together eight or more hits in 58 games this season, and is 32-26 in those contests.
- Boston is 33-9 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Red Sox are 11-10 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 27 games this season and are 10-17 in those matchups.
- Miami has gone 13-1 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 40-27 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Miami has a 31-10 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 20 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 9-11
Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-115)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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