The Boston Red Sox (40-39) and Miami Marlins (45-34) clash in the first of a three-game series on Tuesday at Fenway Park, at 7:10 PM ET. The Red Sox are coming off a series defeat to the White Sox, and the Marlins a series win over the Pirates.
The Marlins are an away underdog (+111) against the Red Sox (-130). The game’s total is set at 9.5.
The betting trends in this article use the latest odds as of June 27, 2023 at 7:20 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -130 | +111 | 9.5 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- The Red Sox have been favorites in 34 games this season and won 19 (55.9%) of those contests.
- Boston has a record of 9-8, a 52.9% win rate, when favored by -130 or more by oddsmakers this season.
- The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 56.5%.
- Games involving Boston has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 43 of 79 chances this season.
- The Red Sox have an ATS record of 39-40-0 in 79 games with a spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.6 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 3.41 |
| K/9 | 8.4 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have come away with 21 wins in the 41 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- This season, Miami has come away with a win 13 times in 24 chances when named as an underdog of at least +111 or longer on the moneyline.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 47.4% chance of pulling out a win.
- Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 35 of its 79 opportunities.
- In 79 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 37-42-0 against the spread.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.2 |
| HR | 5 |
| ERA | 2.45 |
| K/9 | 10.0 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Garrett Whitlock
- When Whitlock starts, his team is 5-3-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed eight hits in seven innings pitched against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday.
- Whitlock will look to finish five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
- He has allowed at least one earned run in every appearance this season.
- Whitlock has started four games with his team as the moneyline favorite and won each of them.
- Whitlock’s team has won five of his eight starts this season.
- Games started by Whitlock have a 4-4-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 26 | 44.1 | 31 | 2.84 | 9 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 26 | 26.1 | 31 | 3.08 | 0 | 16 |
| Chris Martin | 24 | 23.2 | 20 | 1.90 | 13 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | 19 | 22.2 | 22 | 2.38 | 1 | 0 |
| Kaleb Ort | 16 | 18.2 | 21 | 5.79 | 1 | 0 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- The Marlins will send Alcantara (2-6) to the mound for his 16th start of the season. He is 2-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 78 strikeouts through 95 2/3 innings pitched.
- His last time out was on Wednesday against the Toronto Blue Jays, when the righty went seven innings, surrendering five earned runs while allowing 10 hits.
- Alcantara is looking for his 13th straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 6.3 innings per start.
- He has had one outing this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Marlins have been the moneyline underdog in five of Alcantara’s starts this season, and they went 1-4 in those games.
- Over Alcantara’s 15 starts, his team is 6-9.
- Alcantara’s starts went over the run total 10 times in 15 games with a set total this season.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 34 | 34.1 | 44 | 2.62 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | 32 | 37 | 53 | 3.41 | 13 | 2 |
| Dylan Floro | 31 | 30.1 | 32 | 4.15 | 9 | 7 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 29 | 38 | 40 | 3.55 | 9 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | 26 | 27 | 38 | 2.00 | 9 | 0 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox have a 16-9 record this season in games when they smash at least two homers.
- Boston has had at least five extra-base hits in 24 games this season, and has gone 16-8 in those contests.
- The club has notched at least eight hits in 56 games this season, and is 32-24 in those contests.
- Boston has a 33-9 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Red Sox are 11-10 over the 21 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 25 games this season and are 8-17 in those matchups.
- Miami has gone 12-1 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 39-27 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Miami has won 29 of its 39 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 8-11 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-130)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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