Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – June 26, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on June 25, 2023

The New York Mets (35-42) and Milwaukee Brewers (40-37) square off on Monday at 7:10 PM ET, opening a four-game series at Citi Field.

The Brewers are road underdogs (+148) against the Mets (-176). The total for this game is set at 8.5.

The betting insights in the following article reference odds valid as of June 26, 2023 at 7:19 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Mets vs Brewers Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Mets -176 +148 8.5

Mets Betting Insights

  • This season, the Mets have won 27 out of the 52 games, or 51.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • New York has a record of 7-9, a 43.8% win rate, when favored by -176 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Mets have a 63.8% chance to win.
  • Games involving New York has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 36 of 78 chances this season.
  • In 78 games with a spread this season, the Mets are 30-48-0 ATS.

Mets Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 12
ERA 4.14
K/9 8.8

Brewers Betting Insights

  • The Brewers have come away with 18 wins in the 36 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Milwaukee has a mark of 1-3 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +148 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Brewers have a 40.3% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Milwaukee and its opponents have gone over in 33 of its 77 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Brewers have an against the spread record of 34-43-0 in 77 games with a line this season.

Brewers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 9
ERA 3.54
K/9 7.4

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Mets Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander

  • Verlander’s team is 1-8-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed eight hits in seven innings pitched against the Houston Astros on Wednesday.
  • Verlander will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • He has yet to finish an appearance without an earned run allowed this season.
  • Verlander’s team is 3-4 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Verlander’s team is 3-6 when he starts this season.
  • Games started by Verlander have a 3-5-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Mets Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Adam Ottavino 33 31 33 3.77 8 5
Brooks Raley 31 26 27 2.77 14 1
David Robertson 29 33 40 1.64 6 11
Jeff Brigham 28 27.1 30 3.95 5 0
Dominic Leone 18 20.2 18 5.66 0 0

Brewers Probable Pitcher – Colin Rea

  • Rea (3-4 with a 4.88 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 62 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Brewers, his 13th of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Wednesday, the right-hander went 5 1/3 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks, giving up four earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Rea will try to last five or more innings for his seventh straight appearance. He’s averaging 4.8 frames per outing.
  • In two of his 13 total appearances this season he has not given up an earned run.
  • The Brewers have a 4-2 record in Rea’s six starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Rea’s team has won seven of his 12 starts.
  • Rea has had 12 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and five of those games hit the over.

Brewers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Hoby Milner 34 29.2 25 2.73 5 0
Peter Strzelecki 33 34.1 36 4.72 14 0
Joel Payamps 31 35.1 39 2.29 12 1
Devin Williams 25 25.2 35 1.75 0 13
Bryse Wilson 24 36 28 2.75 2 3

Mets Hitting Trends

  • The Mets have hit at least two home runs in 24 games this season, and are 10-14 in those contests.
  • New York has gone 6-4 in its 10 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club has racked up at least eight hits in 45 games this season, and is 28-17 in those contests.
  • New York has a 27-15 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Mets are 7-9 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Brewers Hitting Trends

  • They are 31-6 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Milwaukee has collected five or more extra-base hits in six games this season and won each of them.
  • In 38 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 29-9.
  • Milwaukee has a 39-4 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 20 of their 27 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Mets vs. Brewers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Mets (-176)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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