The San Diego Padres (37-40) and Washington Nationals (29-47) play on Sunday at 4:10 PM ET at PETCO Park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
The favored Padres (-199 on the moneyline to win) host the Nationals (+167). The matchup has an over/under of 8 total runs.
The betting insights in what follows reference odds valid as of June 25, 2023 at 3:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Padres vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | -199 | +167 | 8 |
Padres Betting Insights
- This season, the Padres have won 29 out of the 55 games, or 52.7%, in which they’ve been favored.
- San Diego has a record of 7-3 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -199 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Padres, based on the moneyline, is 66.6%.
- So far this season, San Diego and its opponents have hit the over in 27 of 77 games with a total.
- The Padres are 36-41-0 against the spread this season.
Padres Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.78 |
| K/9 | 8.7 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have been underdogs in 73 games this season and have come away with the win 27 times (37%) in those contests.
- This season, Washington has been victorious 11 times in 26 chances when named as an underdog of at least +167 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 37.5% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Contests with Washington has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 35 of 76 chances this season.
- The Nationals have an against the spread record of 42-34-0 in 76 games with a line this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.3 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 4.70 |
| K/9 | 7.6 |
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Padres Probable Pitcher – Seth Lugo
- Lugo’s team is 5-4-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed five innings while giving up one earned run on three hits in a matchup with the San Francisco Giants.
- Lugo has started nine games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings seven times. He averages 5.1 innings per appearance.
- He has allowed at least one earned run in every appearance this season.
- When Lugo starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 3-4.
- In games Lugo has started, his team is 4-5.
- Out of Lugo’s nine starts with a total this season, three have hit the over.
Padres Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Wilson | 34 | 37 | 40 | 2.43 | 16 | 0 |
| Tim Hill | 32 | 32.1 | 22 | 3.06 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Hader | 30 | 28.2 | 42 | 1.26 | 0 | 18 |
| Brent Honeywell Jr. | 25 | 36.1 | 35 | 3.47 | 3 | 0 |
| Luís Garcia | 25 | 22.2 | 23 | 5.56 | 8 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – MacKenzie Gore
- The Nationals are sending Gore (3-6) to the mound for his 16th start of the season. He is 3-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent appearance came on Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals, when the left-hander went six innings, surrendering five earned runs while giving up nine hits.
- Gore is trying for his sixth straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.3 frames per start.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in two of his 15 appearances this season.
- The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in 14 of Gore’s starts this season, and they went 4-10 in those games.
- Gore’s team has won four of his 15 starts.
- Gore’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in five of 15 contests.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Harvey | 31 | 32.2 | 36 | 3.58 | 11 | 5 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 29 | 30 | 32 | 3.9 | 5 | 11 |
| Mason Thompson | 29 | 37.2 | 34 | 3.11 | 5 | 1 |
| Thad Ward | 19 | 29 | 26 | 6.21 | 0 | 0 |
| Andres Machado | 14 | 17 | 12 | 8.47 | 1 | 0 |
Padres Hitting Trends
- The Padres are 16-15 this season in games when they crush at least two long balls.
- San Diego has put up at least five extra-base hits in 19 games this season, and has gone 13-6 in those outings.
- The team is 28-12 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
- San Diego is 30-4 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Padres are 20-13 over the 33 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They have won nine of the 15 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Washington has won nine of its 12 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 51 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 25-26.
- Washington has won 18 of its 28 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In 16 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 7-9
Padres vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Padres (-199)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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