Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – June 25, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on June 24, 2023

The Miami Marlins (44-34) play the Pittsburgh Pirates (35-41) on Sunday at LoanDepot park, at 1:40 PM ET.

The Marlins are favored at home (-173) versus the Pirates (+146). The total for this game is 7.

The betting insights in this article reflect odds as of June 25, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Marlins vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Marlins -173 +146 7

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 37 times this season and won 23, or 62.2%, of those games.
  • Miami has entered seven games this season favored by -173 or more and is 5-2 in those contests.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 63.4% chance to win.
  • Games involving Miami has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 35 of 78 chances this season.
  • In 78 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 36-42-0 ATS.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 4.4
HR 5
ERA 2.45
K/9 9.7

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have won in 23, or 40.4%, of the 57 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This year, Pittsburgh has won four of 10 games when listed as at least +146 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 40.7% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Contests with Pittsburgh has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 37 of 76 chances this season.
  • The Pirates are 35-41-0 against the spread in their 76 games that had a posted line this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 1-9
Runs Per Game 2.1
HR 4
ERA 4.60
K/9 8.5

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Eury Perez

  • When Perez starts, his team is 5-3-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander did not allow a run in six innings pitched on Tuesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
  • Perez has five starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • If he manages to end his start without allowing an earned run, he’d extend his streak of appearances with no earned runs to three.
  • When Perez starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 2-3.
  • In games Perez has started, his team is 4-4.
  • In Perez’s eight starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Andrew Nardi 33 33.1 43 2.70 5 2
Tanner Scott 32 37 53 3.41 13 2
Dylan Floro 31 30.1 32 4.15 9 7
Huascar Brazoban 29 38 40 3.55 9 0
Steven Okert 25 26 36 2.08 8 0

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Juan Carlos Oviedo

  • Oviedo (3-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 81 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Pirates, his 16th of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs, the righty went six innings, giving up two earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • Oviedo has pitched five or more innings in a game 11 times this year entering this matchup.
  • He has had one appearances this season in which he did not allow an earned run.
  • The Pirates are 3-8 in Oviedo’s 11 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Oviedo’s team has won six of his 15 starts.
  • Oviedo has had 15 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in seven of those matchups.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Dauri Moreta 32 33 44 3.82 4 1
David Bednar 29 30 34 1.50 0 15
Duane Underwood Jr. 19 24.1 14 5.18 3 2
Chad Kuhl 12 38.1 31 8.45 0 1
Angel Perdomo 10 10 15 3.60 1 0

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • The Marlins have an 8-17 record in games this season when they smash two or more homers.
  • Miami has had at least five extra-base hits in 13 games this season, and has gone 12-1 in those contests.
  • The team is 38-27 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • Miami has a 29-10 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Marlins are 8-11 over the 19 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 21 games this season and are 16-5 in those matchups.
  • In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 15-2.
  • In 33 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 24-9.
  • Pittsburgh has a 21-4 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have won 12 of their 24 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-173)
Over/Under Pick: Under (7)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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