Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – June 22, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on June 22, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (39-36) will look for Alex Verdugo to continue a 12-game hitting streak against the Minnesota Twins (37-38), on Thursday at 1:10 PM ET, at Target Field.

The Twins are favored at home (-151) versus the Red Sox (+128). The game’s total is set at 9.

The insights in this article are based off odds valid as of June 22, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Twins vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Twins -151 +128 9

Twins Betting Insights

  • The Twins have won 28, or 60.9%, of the 46 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • This season Minnesota has won 13 of its 23 games, or 56.5%, when favored by at least -151 on the moneyline.
  • The Twins have a 60.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Minnesota’s games have gone over the total in 33 of its 75 chances.
  • In 75 games with a spread this season, the Twins are 35-40-0 ATS.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 11
ERA 5.70
K/9 8.6

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have won in 20, or 46.5%, of the 43 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This season, Boston has come away with a win 10 times in 17 chances when named as an underdog of at least +128 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 43.9% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Boston’s games have gone over the total in 42 of its 75 opportunities.
  • In 75 games with a line this season, the Red Sox have a mark of 38-37-0 against the spread.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.6
HR 11
ERA 2.81
K/9 8.8

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Joe Ryan

  • When Ryan starts, his team is 8-6-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander gave up six earned runs in seven innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Detroit Tigers.
  • Ryan has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has two appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 14 chances this season.
  • Ryan’s team has won 54.5% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (6-5).
  • In games Ryan has started, his team is 8-6.
  • In games Ryan has started this season, the teams are 9-4-1 at hitting the over.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Griffin Jax 33 32 32 3.09 9 1
Jovani Moran 27 30.1 34 4.45 7 0
Jhoan Duran 26 29 38 1.55 1 9
Emilio Pagán 25 31.2 28 3.98 0 0
Brock Stewart 22 23 30 0.78 6 1

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Justin Garza

  • Garza makes his first start of the season for the Red Sox.
  • The 29-year-old right-hander has 12 appearances in relief this season.
  • Garza’s team was never the underdog on the moneyline a season ago in games he pitched.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Josh Winckowski 25 42.1 31 2.34 9 2
Kenley Jansen 24 24.2 29 2.92 0 15
Chris Martin 23 22.2 20 1.99 12 1
Brennan Bernardino 18 21.1 20 2.53 1 0
Kaleb Ort 15 18 20 6.00 1 0

Twins Hitting Trends

  • The Twins have put up at least two homers in 37 games this season, and are 30-7 in those contests.
  • Minnesota has collected at least five extra-base hits in 23 games this season, and has gone 22-1 in those contests.
  • The team has put up eight or more hits 46 times this season, and has a 36-10 record in those games.
  • Minnesota is 37-4 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Twins are 16-10 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • They have won 16 of the 25 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 24 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 16-8.
  • In 55 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 32-23.
  • Boston has won 33 of its 42 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • They have won 11 of their 21 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Twins vs. Red Sox Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Twins (-151)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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