Nicholas Castellanos leads the Philadelphia Phillies (38-35) into a matchup against Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves (47-26) at Citizens Bank Park, on Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET. Castellanos is at .315, the fifth-best average in the league, and Acuna ranks second at .327.
The Phillies are favored (-131 on the moneyline to win) when they host the Braves (+111). The contest has an over/under of 8.5.
The insights in the article below use the latest odds as of June 21, 2023 at 5:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Braves Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -131 | +111 | 8.5 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have entered the game as favorites 43 times this season and won 25, or 58.1%, of those games.
- Philadelphia has a record of 21-11 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -131 on the moneyline.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 56.7% chance to win.
- So far this season, Philadelphia and its opponents have hit the over in 29 of 73 games with a total.
- In 73 games with a spread this season, the Phillies are 32-41-0 ATS.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.77 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have come away with five wins in the nine contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Atlanta has been listed as an underdog of +111 or more on two occasions this season and won both games.
- The Braves have an implied victory probability of 47.4% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 41 of its 73 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- In 73 games with a line this season, the Braves have a mark of 36-37-0 against the spread.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 8-2 |
| Runs Per Game | 7.3 |
| HR | 23 |
| ERA | 3.90 |
| K/9 | 9.7 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola
- Nola and his team are 5-10-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings pitched on Thursday in his last outing, a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Nola has 14 starts in a row of five innings or more.
- In 15 appearances this season, he has finished one without allowing an earned run.
- When Nola starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 6-3.
- Nola’s team is 7-8 when he starts this season.
- In games Nola has started this season, the teams are 8-5-2 at hitting the over.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | 31 | 27.2 | 29 | 4.88 | 11 | 1 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 30 | 28 | 44 | 4.50 | 3 | 10 |
| Andrew Vasquez | 23 | 34 | 30 | 1.85 | 0 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | 19 | 19.1 | 33 | 2.33 | 5 | 6 |
| Yunior Marte | 17 | 15.2 | 17 | 6.89 | 1 | 1 |
Braves Probable Pitcher – A.J. Smith-Shawver
- The Braves will look to Smith-Shawver (1-0) to open the game and make his third start this season.
- The right-hander last appeared on Thursday against the Colorado Rockies, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while giving up six hits.
- Smith-Shawver will try to build upon a three-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.4 innings per outing).
- He has had two appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Braves have not been the underdog on the moneyline when Smith-Shawver starts this season.
- His team has won both of the matchups he’s made an appearance in this season.
- Smith-Shawver’s two starts with a total this season finished 1-1-0 against the total.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 35 | 33.2 | 40 | 5.35 | 5 | 10 |
| Nick Anderson | 27 | 29.1 | 33 | 3.38 | 11 | 1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 24 | 24.1 | 31 | 3.70 | 4 | 0 |
| Kirby Yates | 24 | 26.1 | 35 | 3.42 | 4 | 0 |
| Collin McHugh | 21 | 30 | 19 | 2.70 | 5 | 0 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have hit two or more round-trippers in 20 games this season, and are 14-6 in those contests.
- Philadelphia has collected five or more extra-base hits in 18 games this season, and has gone 13-5 in those contests.
- The club is 30-19 in the games this season it has notched at least eight hits.
- Philadelphia is 27-5 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Phillies have drawn at least five walks in 22 games this season, and are 16-6 in those contests.
Braves Hitting Trends
- They have won 28 of the 37 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Atlanta has collected five or more extra-base hits in 17 games this season and won each of them.
- In 53 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 38-15.
- Atlanta has a 38-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 22 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 14-8
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (+111)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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