The Miami Marlins (40-31) have a 2-0 series lead, hoping to sweep the Washington Nationals (27-42) on Sunday at Nationals Park, at 1:35 PM ET.
As the favorite, the Marlins (-160 on the moneyline) play at the Nationals (+136). The game’s total is set at 9.
The betting insights in this article reflect odds as of June 18, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -160 | +136 | 9 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 32 times this season and won 20, or 62.5%, of those games.
- Miami is 9-1 this season when entering a game favored by -160 or more on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.5% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
- Miami’s games have gone over the total in 32 of its 71 chances.
- The Marlins are 33-38-0 against the spread in their 71 chances this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.41 |
| K/9 | 9.4 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have been victorious in 25, or 37.9%, of the 66 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Washington has a mark of 17-24 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +136 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 42.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Washington and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 32 of its 69 opportunities.
- The Nationals are 40-29-0 against the spread in their 69 games that had a posted line this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-8 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 4.76 |
| K/9 | 7.2 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- Luzardo and his team have a record of 8-6-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Tuesday, when he tossed four innings while giving up five earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Seattle Mariners.
- Luzardo has started 14 games this season, and he’s lasted five or more innings 11 times. He averages 5.5 innings per appearance.
- He has one appearance with no earned runs allowed in 14 chances this season.
- Luzardo’s team has a record of 3-1 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- In games Luzardo has started, his team is 9-5.
- Out of Luzardo’s 14 starts with a total this season, seven have hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 30 | 30.2 | 37 | 2.35 | 5 | 1 |
| Tanner Scott | 29 | 34 | 48 | 2.91 | 12 | 2 |
| Dylan Floro | 27 | 27.1 | 28 | 4.28 | 7 | 7 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 25 | 33.2 | 37 | 4.01 | 9 | 0 |
| Steven Okert | 22 | 23.1 | 33 | 1.93 | 6 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin
- Corbin (4-7) takes the mound first for the Nationals in his 15th start of the season. He’s put together a 4.81 ERA in 78 2/3 innings pitched, with 51 strikeouts.
- In his most recent appearance on Wednesday, the lefty tossed five innings against the Houston Astros, allowing two earned runs while surrendering four hits.
- Corbin is looking for his 14th straight appearance lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.6 innings per start.
- So far during the 2023 campaign he has surrendered at least one earned run in all of his outings.
- The Nationals are 6-7 in Corbin’s 13 starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Corbin’s team has a 7-7 record in his starts this season.
- Corbin has had 14 starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in seven of those outings.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 31 | 30.2 | 23 | 3.23 | 13 | 2 |
| Hunter Harvey | 28 | 29.2 | 35 | 3.34 | 11 | 3 |
| Mason Thompson | 27 | 35.1 | 30 | 3.31 | 3 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 26 | 26.2 | 30 | 4.39 | 3 | 11 |
| Thad Ward | 17 | 25.2 | 24 | 5.61 | 0 | 0 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins are 8-17 this season in games when they hit at least two long balls.
- Miami is 12-1 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has notched eight or more hits 60 times this season, and has a 34-26 record in those games.
- Miami is 27-10 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Marlins are 8-11 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They are 8-5 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Washington has gone 9-2 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 45 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 24-21.
- Washington has a 18-9 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In 16 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 7-9
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Nationals (+136)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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