The Milwaukee Brewers (36-34) have a 2-0 series lead, hoping to sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates (34-35) on Sunday at American Family Field, at 2:10 PM ET.
The Brewers are favored (-160 on the moneyline) when they host the Pirates (+135). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in the article below reference odds valid as of June 18, 2023 at 1:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Brewers vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | -160 | +135 | 8.5 |
Brewers Betting Insights
- The Brewers have won 20, or 52.6%, of the 38 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Milwaukee is 5-7 this season when entering a game favored by -160 or more on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 61.5% chance of a victory for the Brewers.
- Games involving Milwaukee has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 29 of 70 chances this season.
- The Brewers have an ATS record of 31-39-0 in 70 games with a spread this season.
Brewers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 4.00 |
| K/9 | 9.9 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have been victorious in 22, or 44%, of the 50 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Pittsburgh has a mark of 8-9 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +135 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Pirates have a 42.6% chance of walking away with the win.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 35 of its 69 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Pirates have an against the spread record of 33-36-0 in 69 games with a line this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 2-8 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 6.99 |
| K/9 | 9.1 |
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Brewers Probable Pitcher – Freddy Peralta
- Peralta and his team are 5-8-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The right-hander gave up four earned runs in five innings pitched on Sunday in his last outing, a matchup with the Oakland Athletics.
- Peralta will look to finish five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
- He has made 13 appearances and finished one of them without allowing an earned run.
- Peralta’s team is 5-5 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Peralta’s team has won six of his 13 starts this season.
- In games Peralta has started this season, the teams are 7-5-1 at hitting the over.
Brewers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Strzelecki | 30 | 31.1 | 32 | 4.88 | 14 | 0 |
| Joel Payamps | 29 | 32.1 | 34 | 2.51 | 11 | 1 |
| Hoby Milner | 29 | 26 | 23 | 3.12 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Williams | 22 | 22.2 | 32 | 1.99 | 0 | 11 |
| Bryse Wilson | 22 | 35 | 28 | 2.83 | 2 | 3 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Luis Ortiz
- Ortiz (1-3) gets the starting nod for the Pirates in his seventh start of the season. He’s put together a 4.64 ERA in 33 2/3 innings pitched, with 20 strikeouts.
- In his last appearance on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs, the righty tossed 5 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs while surrendering six hits.
- Ortiz will try to build upon a three-game streak of going five or more innings (he’s averaging 4.7 frames per appearance).
- So far during the 2023 campaign he has allowed one or more earned runs in all of his appearances.
- The Pirates are 2-3 in Ortiz’s five starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Over Ortiz’s six starts, his team is 2-4.
- Ortiz has had six starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and four of those games finished over the total.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dauri Moreta | 29 | 31.2 | 43 | 1.71 | 4 | 1 |
| David Bednar | 25 | 25.1 | 31 | 1.78 | 0 | 14 |
| Jose Hernandez | 25 | 27.1 | 28 | 2.63 | 3 | 0 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 19 | 24.1 | 14 | 5.18 | 3 | 2 |
| Yohan Ramirez | 18 | 22.2 | 22 | 3.18 | 3 | 0 |
Brewers Hitting Trends
- The Brewers are 30-6 this season in games when they hit two or more long balls.
- Milwaukee has won each of its five games this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has notched eight or more hits 35 times this season, and has a 26-9 record in those games.
- Milwaukee has a 35-4 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Brewers have drawn five or more walks in 25 games this season, and are 18-7 in those contests.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 20 games this season and are 16-4 in those matchups.
- Pittsburgh has won 15 of its 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 24 of the 33 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 25 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 21-4.
- In 21 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 12-9
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Brewers (-160)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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