The Boston Red Sox (30-30) and Cleveland Guardians (27-32) square off on Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET, beginning a three-game series at Progressive Field.
The Red Sox (-109 moneyline odds to win) take the field against the Guardians (-108) in an expected tight contest. The over/under for the game is set at 7.5 total runs.
The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of June 6, 2023 at 7:18 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Red Sox vs Guardians Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | -109 | -108 | 7.5 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 25 times this season and won 14, or 56%, of those games.
- Boston has a record of 15-11, a 57.7% win rate, when favored by -109 or more by bookmakers this season.
- The Red Sox have a 52.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 35 of 60 opportunities.
- The Red Sox are 31-29-0 against the spread this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 3.84 |
| K/9 | 9.6 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 27 games this year and have walked away with the win 12 times (44.4%) in those games.
- This season, Cleveland has come away with a win 12 times in 27 chances when named as an underdog of at least -108 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 51.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Cleveland and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 22 of its 59 opportunities.
- The Guardians are 28-31-0 against the spread in their 59 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 5 |
| ERA | 3.48 |
| K/9 | 8.6 |
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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – James Paxton
- Paxton and his team are 1-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed five innings while giving up one earned run on four hits in a matchup with the Cincinnati Reds.
- Paxton has started three games with his team as the moneyline favorite, and has been upset each time.
- In games Paxton has started, his team is 1-3.
- In Paxton’s four starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Winckowski | 20 | 35.2 | 27 | 2.27 | 8 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 18 | 18.2 | 22 | 3.86 | 0 | 12 |
| Ryan Brasier | 18 | 21 | 18 | 7.29 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Martin | 17 | 16.2 | 12 | 1.62 | 10 | 0 |
| Kaleb Ort | 14 | 15.1 | 16 | 5.87 | 1 | 0 |
Guardians Probable Pitcher – Shane Bieber
- Bieber makes the start for the Guardians, his 13th of the season. He is 4-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty last pitched on Wednesday against the Baltimore Orioles, when he went four innings, allowing seven earned runs while giving up eight hits.
- Bieber heads into the game with 10 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
- The Guardians were the underdog on the moneyline for two Bieber starts this season — they lost both.
- Over Bieber’s 12 starts, his team is 5-7.
- Bieber’s starts went over the run total four times in 12 games with a set total this season.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 28 | 29 | 24 | 3.10 | 0 | 19 |
| James Karinchak | 27 | 25.2 | 36 | 3.86 | 11 | 0 |
| Trevor Stephan | 26 | 25.1 | 30 | 2.84 | 9 | 2 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 24 | 23 | 18 | 1.96 | 4 | 0 |
| Eli Morgan | 20 | 23.1 | 25 | 1.93 | 2 | 1 |
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- The Red Sox have hit at least two round-trippers in 21 games this season, and are 13-8 in those contests.
- Boston is 11-8 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has strung together eight or more hits 42 times this season, and has a 23-19 record in those games.
- Boston has a 26-8 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Red Sox have drawn at least five walks in 19 games this season, and are 10-9 in those contests.
Guardians Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in eight games this season and are 6-2 in those matchups.
- In eight games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 4-4.
- In 31 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 15-16.
- Cleveland has won 11 of its 16 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 9-8 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (-109)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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