The Boston Red Sox (28-24) have a 2-0 series lead and aim to sweep the Arizona Diamondbacks (29-23) on Sunday at Chase Field, at 4:10 PM ET.
The Red Sox (+105 underdog on the moneyline to win) are away versus the Diamondbacks (-123). The over/under in the game is set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in what follows reflect odds as of May 28, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | -123 | +105 | 8.5 |
Diamondbacks Betting Insights
- This season, the Diamondbacks have been favored 20 times and won 12, or 60%, of those games.
- Arizona is 12-7 this season when entering a game favored by -123 or more on the moneyline.
- The Diamondbacks have a 55.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- So far this season, Arizona and its opponents have hit the over in 22 of 44 games with a total.
- The Diamondbacks are 25-19-0 against the spread this season.
Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 4.15 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
Red Sox Betting Insights
- The Red Sox have been victorious in 15, or 50%, of the 30 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Boston has a mark of 12-11 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +105 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Red Sox have a 48.8% chance of walking away with the win.
- Boston and its opponents have gone over in 27 of its 45 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Red Sox are 27-18-0 against the spread in their 45 games that had a posted line this season.
Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 2.93 |
| K/9 | 8.3 |
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Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Merrill Kelly
- Kelly’s team is 5-3-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander gave up two earned runs in five innings pitched on Sunday, May 21 in his last outing, a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- Kelly has nine starts in a row of five innings or more.
- Kelly’s team is 4-1 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- In games Kelly has started, his team is 6-4.
- Games Kelly has started this season hit the over three times in eight chances.
Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott McGough | 23 | 27.2 | 31 | 3.58 | 10 | 1 |
| Miguel Castro | 22 | 23.1 | 20 | 2.31 | 8 | 4 |
| Kyle Nelson | 21 | 20 | 23 | 2.25 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Chafin | 21 | 19.1 | 29 | 3.26 | 5 | 7 |
| Kevin Ginkel | 20 | 23.1 | 21 | 3.09 | 1 | 0 |
Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Tanner Houck
- Houck makes the start for the Red Sox, his 10th of the season. He is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 48 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty last pitched on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels, when he threw six innings, allowing one earned run while giving up three hits.
- Houck will look to last five or more innings for his seventh straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.4 innings per outing.
- The Red Sox have been the underdog on the moneyline in six of Houck’s starts this season, and they went 2-4 in those games.
- Houck’s team has put together a 5-4 record in his nine starts.
- Houck has started eight games with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in four of them.
Red Sox Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Brasier | 18 | 21 | 18 | 7.29 | 1 | 1 |
| Josh Winckowski | 17 | 32.1 | 23 | 2.23 | 7 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | 15 | 15.2 | 18 | 3.45 | 0 | 11 |
| Chris Martin | 14 | 13.2 | 9 | 1.32 | 9 | 0 |
| Kutter Crawford | 7 | 30 | 30 | 3.30 | 1 | 0 |
Diamondbacks Hitting Trends
- The Diamondbacks have a 16-6 record in games this season when they smash at least two homers.
- Arizona has gone 13-4 in its 17 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The team has notched eight or more hits in 41 games this season, and is 31-10 in those contests.
- Arizona is 30-6 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Diamondbacks are 11-11 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Red Sox Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 19 games this season and are 12-7 in those matchups.
- Boston has gone 11-6 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- In 37 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 21-16.
- In 31 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 24-7.
- They have a 9-7 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (-123)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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