Cubs vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 27, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 26, 2023

The Chicago Cubs (22-28) and Cincinnati Reds (22-29) square off on Saturday at 7:15 PM ET, at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are favored at home (-175) against the Reds (+148). The over/under for this game is 8.5.

The betting trends in the article below reference odds valid as of May 27, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Cubs vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Cubs -175 +148 8.5

Cubs Betting Insights

  • The Cubs have won 10, or 47.6%, of the 21 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • Chicago has entered five games this season favored by -175 or more and is 2-3 in those contests.
  • The Cubs have a 63.6% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Games involving Chicago has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 24 of 44 chances this season.
  • The Cubs are 23-21-0 against the spread this season.

Cubs Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 3-7
Runs Per Game 4.0
HR 15
ERA 5.61
K/9 9.2

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have won in 15, or 41.7%, of the 36 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This year, Cincinnati has won five of 12 games when listed as at least +148 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Reds have an implied victory probability of 40.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
  • Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 25 of its 45 opportunities.
  • The Reds have posted a record of 27-18-0 against the spread this season.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.7
HR 6
ERA 4.45
K/9 9.8

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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Jameson Taillon

  • Taillon’s team is 1-5-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander gave up six earned runs and allowed six hits in 2 1/3 innings pitched against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, May 20.
  • Taillon has two starts of five or more innings this season in seven chances. He averages 3.7 innings per outing.
  • Taillon has started three games with his team as the moneyline favorite, and has been upset each time.
  • Taillon’s team is winless in the seven games he’s started this season.
  • Out of Taillon’s six starts with a total this season, four have hit the over.

Cubs Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Michael Fulmer 19 20 22 7.20 3 1
Mark Leiter Jr. 18 20.1 31 1.77 8 2
Julian Merryweather 18 19.2 25 5.03 0 0
Adbert Alzolay 17 24 22 2.63 6 1
Michael Rucker 17 21 24 5.57 0 0

Reds Probable Pitcher – Brandon Williamson

  • Williamson (0-0) makes the start for the Reds, his third of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Monday, the left-hander threw 4 1/3 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
  • Williamson is trying to secure his second start of five or more innings this year in this outing.
  • The Reds were named the moneyline underdog for two Williamson starts this season — they won both.
  • His team has won both of the matchups he’s made an appearance in this season.
  • Williamson’s two starts with a total this season finished 1-1-0 against the total.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 20 22.1 22 3.63 5 1
Alex Young 20 20.1 25 3.10 5 0
Buck Farmer 19 24 24 3.00 3 0
Alexis Diaz 17 18.2 35 1.93 1 10
Lucas Sims 14 15.1 19 4.11 4 0

Cubs Hitting Trends

  • The Cubs are 10-10 this season in games when they send out two or more bombs.
  • Chicago has gone 8-2 in its 10 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has notched at least eight hits 38 times this season, and has a 27-11 record in those games.
  • Chicago is 20-4 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Cubs have drawn at least five walks in 20 games this season, and are 9-11 in those contests.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They have won 11 of the 13 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 15 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 12-3.
  • They have a record of 27-15 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cincinnati has a 29-5 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 20 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 6-14

Cubs vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-175)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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