Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 26, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 25, 2023

The Minnesota Twins (26-24) and Toronto Blue Jays (26-25) square off in the first of a three-game series on Friday at Target Field, at 8:10 PM ET. The Twins are coming off a series defeat to the Giants, and the Blue Jays a series loss to the Rays.

The Twins (-110 on the moneyline) have a projected close game with the Blue Jays (also -110 on the moneyline). The game’s over/under is set at 8.

The betting trends in what follows use the latest odds as of May 26, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Twins vs Blue Jays Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
No Favorite -110 -110 8

Twins Betting Insights

  • This season, the Twins have been favored 26 times and won 16, or 61.5%, of those games.
  • Minnesota is 16-10 this season when entering a game favored by -110 or more on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 52.4% chance to win.
  • So far this season, Minnesota and its opponents have hit the over in 19 of 43 games with a total.
  • The Twins are 20-23-0 against the spread in their 43 chances this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5.5
HR 16
ERA 3.74
K/9 10.6

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • The Blue Jays have been chosen as underdogs in 14 games this year and have walked away with the win seven times (50%) in those games.
  • This year, Toronto has won seven of 14 games when listed as at least -110 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Blue Jays have a 52.4% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Toronto and its opponents have hit the over in 22 of its 43 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • In 43 games with a line this season, the Blue Jays have a mark of 20-23-0 against the spread.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 2-8
Runs Per Game 4.8
HR 13
ERA 4.05
K/9 8.9

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Twins Probable Pitcher – Louie Varland

  • Varland and his team are 3-2-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed five innings while giving up two earned runs on six hits in a matchup with the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Varland has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • Varland’s team is 1-1 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
  • Varland’s team has a 3-2 record in his starts this season.
  • Games started by Varland have a 2-3-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Griffin Jax 22 21.1 25 4.64 6 0
Jorge López 21 22 19 2.45 6 3
Jhoan Duran 18 18.1 24 1.47 0 7
Jovani Moran 17 21.2 26 4.15 5 0
Emilio Pagán 16 19.2 20 5.03 0 0

Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Kevin Gausman

  • The Blue Jays will send Gausman (2-3) to the mound to make his 11th start of the season. He is 2-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 81 strikeouts through 63 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent appearance on Sunday, the righty tossed eight innings against the Baltimore Orioles, giving up two earned runs while surrendering six hits.
  • Gausman will aim to go five or more innings for his fourth straight appearance. He’s averaging 6.3 innings per outing.
  • The Blue Jays were named the moneyline underdog for one Gausman start this season — they lost.
  • Gausman’s team is 4-6 in his 10 starts.
  • Gausman has started eight contests with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in four of them.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yimi Garcia 23 22.2 27 6.35 7 0
Tim Mayza 23 18 18 1.00 3 1
Erik Swanson 22 23 28 3.52 10 0
Jordan Romano 19 19 24 3.32 1 10
Anthony Bass 18 16 16 5.06 1 0

Twins Hitting Trends

  • The Twins have racked up two or more long balls in 30 games this season, and are 25-5 in those outings.
  • Minnesota has won each of its 18 games this season when putting up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club has notched eight or more hits in 36 games this season, and is 29-7 in those contests.
  • Minnesota has a 30-3 record in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Twins have drawn five or more walks in 19 games this season, and are 13-6 in those contests.

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 13 games this season and are 8-5 in those matchups.
  • Toronto is undefeated in seven games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 31 of the 47 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Toronto has a 25-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 6-5 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Twins (-110)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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