Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 26, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 25, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks (29-21) will look for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to extend a 13-game hitting streak versus the Boston Red Sox (26-24), on Friday at 9:40 PM ET, at Chase Field.

The Diamondbacks (+111 underdog moneyline odds) take the field at home against the Red Sox (-130). The game’s over/under is set at 9.

The insights in the article below reflect odds as of May 26, 2023 at 9:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Red Sox vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Red Sox -130 +111 9

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have entered the game as favorites 12 times this season and won seven, or 58.3%, of those games.
  • Boston has a record of 2-1 when favored by -130 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Red Sox have a 56.5% chance to win.
  • Boston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 26 of 43 opportunities.
  • The Red Sox are 26-17-0 ATS in their 43 games with a spread this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 8
ERA 4.40
K/9 8.8

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have come away with 13 wins in the 21 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Arizona has come away with a win nine times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of at least +111 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Diamondbacks have a 47.4% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Arizona and its opponents have gone over in 21 of its 42 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Diamondbacks are 24-18-0 against the spread in their 42 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 5.0
HR 14
ERA 3.46
K/9 8.8

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Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Chris Sale

  • Sale and his team are 4-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The left-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up two earned runs on three hits in a matchup with the San Diego Padres.
  • Sale will look to finish five or more innings for the seventh start in a row.
  • Sale’s team is 1-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • Sale’s team has won six of his nine starts this season.
  • In Sale’s seven starts with a total, the teams have hit the over three times.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ryan Brasier 18 21 18 7.29 1 1
Josh Winckowski 16 29.1 22 2.15 6 2
Kenley Jansen 14 14.2 17 3.68 0 10
Chris Martin 13 13 9 1.38 8 0
Brennan Bernardino 9 12.1 10 3.65 0 0

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Brandon Pfaadt

  • Pfaadt (0-1) gets the starting nod for the Diamondbacks in his fifth start of the season. He has a 7.65 ERA in 20 2/3 innings pitched, with 14 strikeouts.
  • His most recent time out was on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when the righty threw 5 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while allowing six hits.
  • Pfaadt will look to build on a four-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.0 innings per appearance).
  • The Diamondbacks were the moneyline underdog for three Pfaadt starts this season — they won every time.
  • Pfaadt’s team is 3-1 over his four starts.
  • Pfaadt’s starts hit the over on the run total one time in four games with a set total this season.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Scott McGough 22 25.2 26 3.86 10 1
Miguel Castro 21 22.1 20 2.42 8 4
Andrew Chafin 21 19.1 29 3.26 5 7
Kyle Nelson 20 19.1 22 2.33 5 0
Kevin Ginkel 19 21.1 19 2.95 1 0

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • The Red Sox have hit at least two homers in 19 games this season, and are 12-7 in those outings.
  • Boston has collected at least five extra-base hits in 16 games this season, and has gone 10-6 in those contests.
  • The team is 20-16 in the games this season it has totaled eight or more hits.
  • Boston is 23-7 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Red Sox have gone 9-7 in the 16 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They have won 16 of the 22 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 17 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 13-4.
  • They have a record of 31-10 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 36 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 30-6.
  • They have a 11-11 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Red Sox vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Diamondbacks (+111)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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