The New York Mets (24-23) will look to Francisco Alvarez, on a two-game homer streak, versus the Cleveland Guardians (20-25) at 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, at Citi Field.
The favored Mets (-147 moneyline odds) take the field at home against the Guardians (+125). The total for this game is set at 7.5.
The insights in the following article reflect odds as of May 21, 2023 at 7:22 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Guardians Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -147 | +125 | 7.5 |
Mets Betting Insights
- This season, the Mets have been favored 32 times and won 16, or 50%, of those games.
- This season New York has won nine of its 22 games, or 40.9%, when favored by at least -147 on the moneyline.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 59.5% chance of a victory for the Mets.
- New York and its opponents have hit the over in 18 of its 40 games with a total this season.
- The Mets are 12-28-0 against the spread this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.7 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 8 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have been victorious in five, or 35.7%, of the 14 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- This season, Cleveland has come away with a win two times in four chances when named as an underdog of at least +125 or longer on the moneyline.
- The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 44.4% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 13 of its 37 opportunities.
- The Guardians have an against the spread record of 14-23-0 in 37 games with a line this season.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.45 |
| K/9 | 8.5 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander
- Verlander and his team have yet to cover the spread in any of their three chances this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, when he threw five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, giving up six earned runs while allowing eight hits.
- Verlander has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
- When Verlander starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 1-2.
- In games Verlander has started, his team is 1-2.
- Out of Verlander’s three starts with a total this season, one has hit the over.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Ottavino | 20 | 18.2 | 19 | 4.82 | 5 | 4 |
| David Robertson | 19 | 21.1 | 25 | 1.27 | 4 | 8 |
| Drew Smith | 18 | 16.1 | 22 | 2.76 | 7 | 1 |
| Brooks Raley | 16 | 14.1 | 14 | 3.77 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeurys Familia | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | 6.39 | 1 | 2 |
Guardians Probable Pitcher – Shane Bieber
- Bieber gets the start for the Guardians, his 10th of the season. He is 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings pitched.
- His last time out was on Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox, when the right-hander threw 4 2/3 innings, surrendering five earned runs while giving up 12 hits.
- Bieber will look to record his ninth matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 6.2 innings per appearance.
- The Guardians have not been a moneyline underdog when Bieber starts this season.
- In Bieber’s nine starts, his team is 3-6.
- Bieber has started seven contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in two of them.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 22 | 23 | 15 | 3.52 | 0 | 15 |
| Trevor Stephan | 20 | 19.2 | 23 | 2.29 | 6 | 2 |
| James Karinchak | 20 | 19.2 | 28 | 5.03 | 9 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 17 | 16.1 | 14 | 2.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Eli Morgan | 16 | 19 | 20 | 1.89 | 2 | 1 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets are 9-5 this season in games when they hit two or more bombs.
- New York has put up five or more extra-base hits in seven games this season, and has gone 5-2 in those outings.
- The club has collected eight or more hits 31 times this season, and has a 22-9 record in those games.
- New York is 22-6 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Mets have gone 7-3 in the 10 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Guardians Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in six games this season and are 4-2 in those matchups.
- Cleveland has gone 3-4 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 11-12 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 12 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 9-3.
- They have won eight of their 16 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Mets vs. Guardians Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Mets (-147)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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