Yankees vs. Reds Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 21, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 20, 2023

The New York Yankees (28-20) have a 2-0 series lead, hoping to sweep the Cincinnati Reds (19-26) on Sunday at Great American Ball Park, at 11:35 AM ET.

The Yankees are favored (-138 on the moneyline to win) when they take the field at the Reds (+118). The contest has an over/under of 8.5.

The betting insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of May 21, 2023 at 11:15 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Yankees vs Reds Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Yankees -138 +118 8.5

Yankees Betting Insights

  • The Yankees have been favorites in 27 games this season and won 18 (66.7%) of those contests.
  • New York has entered 17 games this season favored by -138 or more and is 14-3 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 58% chance of a victory for the Yankees.
  • New York’s games have gone over the total in 19 of its 41 chances.
  • The Yankees are 23-18-0 against the spread this season.

Yankees Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 20
ERA 4.05
K/9 8.0

Reds Betting Insights

  • The Reds have come away with 12 wins in the 30 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Cincinnati has a mark of 7-16 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +118 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Reds have a 45.9% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Cincinnati’s games have gone over the total in 21 of its 39 opportunities.
  • In 39 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 23-16-0 against the spread.

Reds Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.3
HR 8
ERA 4.70
K/9 8.8

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Yankees Probable Pitcher – Luis Severino

  • Severino and his team were 11-10-0 ATS in games he pitched last year.
  • The last time the righty took the mound was on Thursday, Oct. 20 last season, when he pitched 5 1/3 innings in a matchup with the Houston Astros.
  • Severino and his team had a 13-5 record when he pitched as a favorite last season.
  • His team finished with a record of 13-8 in games he pitched last season.

Yankees Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Wandy Peralta 19 17.2 19 2.04 4 3
Ron Marinaccio 18 22 28 4.09 4 1
Clay Holmes 18 18.1 24 2.45 3 4
Jimmy Cordero 16 20 19 2.25 2 0
Albert Abreu 16 22 24 4.50 3 0

Reds Probable Pitcher – Hunter Greene

  • Greene makes the start for the Reds, his 10th of the season. He is 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 43 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies, the right-hander tossed four innings, giving up six earned runs while surrendering nine hits.
  • Greene has put up five starts this season where he pitched five or more innings.
  • The Reds have been the moneyline underdog in three of Greene’s starts this season, and they went 1-2 in those matchups.
  • Over Greene’s nine starts, his team is 2-7.
  • Greene’s starts hit the over on the run total three times in seven games with a set total this season.

Reds Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ian Gibaut 19 21.1 20 3.80 5 1
Alex Young 19 20 24 2.70 5 0
Buck Farmer 18 22.1 21 3.22 3 0
Alexis Diaz 16 17 31 2.12 1 10
Lucas Sims 12 12.2 16 3.55 3 0

Yankees Hitting Trends

  • The Yankees have a 24-9 record in games this season when they smash two or more homers.
  • New York is 5-1 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has totaled eight or more hits in 38 games this season, and is 26-12 in those contests.
  • New York is 23-8 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Yankees have gone 12-4 over the 16 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Reds Hitting Trends

  • They have won 11 of the 13 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Cincinnati has gone 10-2 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 24-14 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Cincinnati has won 26 of its 30 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
  • In 19 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 5-14

Yankees vs. Reds Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Yankees (-138)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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