The Miami Marlins (22-21) hope to finish off a sweep of a three-game series versus the Washington Nationals (18-25), at 1:10 PM ET on Thursday.
The Nationals are road underdogs (+133) versus the Marlins (-157). The contest has an over/under of 8.
The insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of May 18, 2023 at 1:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -157 | +133 | 8 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- This season, the Marlins have won 10 out of the 18 games, or 55.6%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Miami has played as favorites of -157 or more twice this season and split those games.
- The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 61.1% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
- Games involving Miami has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 19 of 43 chances this season.
- The Marlins are 16-27-0 against the spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.53 |
| K/9 | 10.4 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have won in 18, or 41.9%, of the 43 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This year, Washington has won 13 of 30 games when listed as at least +133 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 42.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Contests with Washington has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 19 of 43 chances this season.
- The Nationals have posted a record of 28-15-0 against the spread this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.0 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 4.34 |
| K/9 | 6.4 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Eury Perez
- Perez and his team failed to cover the spread in his only opportunity this season as a starter.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs while allowing four hits against the Cincinnati Reds.
- Perez’s team lost his only start as a favorite this season.
- Perez’s team lost in his only start this season.
- The only game started by Perez with a total this season hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 18 | 19.1 | 22 | 3.72 | 1 | 1 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 17 | 23.2 | 29 | 3.04 | 6 | 0 |
| Dylan Floro | 16 | 19.1 | 18 | 2.79 | 5 | 3 |
| Tanner Scott | 15 | 20.1 | 25 | 4.43 | 6 | 2 |
| Matt Barnes | 14 | 16.2 | 16 | 3.78 | 1 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Trevor Williams
- Williams makes the start for the Nationals, his ninth of the season. He is 1-1 with a 4.23 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent time out on Saturday against the New York Mets, the righty went 2 1/3 innings, allowing one earned run while surrendering two hits.
- Williams heads into this matchup with six outings of five or more innings pitched this campaign.
- The Nationals have been the underdog on the moneyline in eight of Williams’ starts this season, and they went 5-3 in those games.
- Williams’ team has put together a 5-3 record in his eight starts.
- Williams has started eight games with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in three of them.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 19 | 17.2 | 12 | 2.55 | 6 | 1 |
| Hunter Harvey | 18 | 19 | 21 | 3.32 | 7 | 1 |
| Erasmo Ramírez | 17 | 22.1 | 12 | 4.03 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 16 | 15.1 | 14 | 5.87 | 1 | 8 |
| Mason Thompson | 15 | 22.1 | 21 | 4.43 | 1 | 1 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins are 5-14 this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
- Miami has put up five or more extra-base hits in seven games this season, and won each time.
- The team is 21-21 in the games this season it has put up eight or more hits.
- Miami is 14-8 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Marlins have gone 2-9 in the 11 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in six games this season and are 4-2 in those matchups.
- Washington has collected five or more extra-base hits in six games this season and won each of them.
- They have won 15 of the 28 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 16 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 11-5.
- They have won five of their 13 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-157)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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