Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 17, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 17, 2023

The Miami Marlins (21-21) will try to keep a 25-game win streak alive when they host the Washington Nationals (18-24) at 6:40 PM ET on Wednesday.

The Marlins are favored (-123 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Nationals (+105). The over/under for the game is set at 7.5 total runs.

The betting facts in this article are based off odds valid as of May 17, 2023 at 5:21 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Marlins vs Nationals Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Marlins -123 +105 7.5

Marlins Betting Insights

  • This season, the Marlins have won nine out of the 17 games, or 52.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
  • Miami has a record of 6-4, a 60% win rate, when favored by -123 or more by bookmakers this season.
  • The Marlins have a 55.2% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Miami’s games have gone over the total in 19 of its 42 chances.
  • The Marlins are 16-26-0 against the spread this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 3.8
HR 10
ERA 3.75
K/9 11.1

Nationals Betting Insights

  • The Nationals have been victorious in 18, or 42.9%, of the 42 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • This season, Washington has come away with a win 17 times in 40 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or longer on the moneyline.
  • The Nationals have an implied victory probability of 48.8% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Washington and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 19 of its 42 opportunities.
  • The Nationals have an against the spread record of 27-15-0 in 42 games with a line this season.

Nationals Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 8
ERA 4.76
K/9 6.3

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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Edward Cabrera

  • Cabrera and his team are 3-4-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, May 10, when he tossed 3 1/3 innings while giving up four earned runs on two hits in a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Cabrera has made four starts of five or more innings in seven chances this season, and averages 4.4 frames when he pitches.
  • Cabrera’s team is 2-0 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
  • Cabrera’s team has a 4-3 record in his starts this season.
  • In Cabrera’s seven starts with a total, the teams have hit the over four times.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Andrew Nardi 17 18.1 21 3.93 0 1
Huascar Brazoban 17 23.2 29 3.04 6 0
Dylan Floro 15 18.1 18 2.95 5 2
Tanner Scott 14 19.1 25 4.66 5 2
Matt Barnes 14 16.2 16 3.78 1 0

Nationals Probable Pitcher – MacKenzie Gore

  • Gore makes the start for the Nationals, his ninth of the season. He is 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings pitched.
  • His last time out came on Friday against the New York Mets, when the lefty went four scoreless innings while allowing five hits.
  • Gore has pitched five or more innings in a game five times this season heading into this matchup.
  • The Nationals have been the moneyline underdog in eight of Gore’s starts this season, and they went 3-5 in those matchups.
  • Gore’s team has won three of his eight starts.
  • Gore has had eight starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and two of those matchups hit the over.

Nationals Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Hunter Harvey 18 19 21 3.32 7 1
Carl Edwards Jr. 18 16.1 10 2.76 6 1
Erasmo Ramírez 17 22.1 12 4.03 2 0
Kyle Finnegan 16 15.1 14 5.87 1 8
Mason Thompson 15 22.1 21 4.43 1 1

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • The Marlins are 5-14 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Miami has collected five or more extra-base hits in seven games this season, and won every time.
  • The club has collected eight or more hits 41 times this season, and has a 20-21 record in those games.
  • Miami is 14-8 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Marlins are 2-9 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Nationals Hitting Trends

  • They have won four of the six games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Washington has collected five or more extra-base hits in six games this season and won each of them.
  • They have a record of 15-12 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 16 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 11-5.
  • In 13 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 5-8

Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-123)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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