The Miami Marlins (20-21) carry a 24-game win streak into a home contest versus the Washington Nationals (18-23) at 6:40 PM ET on Tuesday.
The favored Marlins (-169 on the moneyline to win) host the Nationals (+145). The over/under for the game is 7.5 total runs.
The betting trends in this article reference odds valid as of May 16, 2023 at 3:21 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -169 | +145 | 7.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have won eight, or 50%, of the 16 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Miami has played as favorites of -169 or more once this season and lost that game.
- The implied probability of a win from the Marlins, based on the moneyline, is 62.8%.
- So far this season, Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 18 of 41 games with a total.
- The Marlins are 16-25-0 ATS in their 41 games with a spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 3.84 |
| K/9 | 11.0 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have been chosen as underdogs in 41 games this year and have walked away with the win 18 times (43.9%) in those games.
- This year, Washington has won 10 of 22 games when listed as at least +145 or worse on the moneyline.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nationals have a 40.8% chance of pulling out a win.
- Washington and its opponents have gone over in 18 of its 41 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Nationals have posted a record of 26-15-0 against the spread this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.1 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.66 |
| K/9 | 6.4 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- When Luzardo starts, his team is 6-2-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed six innings while giving up one earned run on seven hits in a matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
- Luzardo has three starts in a row of five innings or more.
- Luzardo’s team is 1-1 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
- Luzardo’s team has won six of his eight starts.
- In games Luzardo has started this season, the teams are 3-3-2 at hitting the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huascar Brazoban | 16 | 23.1 | 28 | 1.93 | 6 | 0 |
| Andrew Nardi | 16 | 17.1 | 20 | 4.15 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Floro | 15 | 18.1 | 18 | 2.95 | 5 | 2 |
| Matt Barnes | 14 | 16.2 | 16 | 3.78 | 1 | 0 |
| Tanner Scott | 13 | 18.1 | 23 | 4.91 | 4 | 2 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Josiah Gray
- Gray makes the start for the Nationals, his ninth of the season. He is 3-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 45 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent time out on Wednesday, the righty tossed seven innings against the San Francisco Giants, allowing two earned runs while surrendering five hits.
- Gray will look to build on a nine-game streak of lasting five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.7 innings per appearance).
- The Nationals have a 3-5 record in Gray’s eight starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Gray’s team has a 3-5 record in his starts this season.
- Gray has started eight contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in two of them.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 18 | 16.1 | 10 | 2.76 | 6 | 1 |
| Hunter Harvey | 17 | 18.1 | 20 | 1.96 | 7 | 1 |
| Erasmo Ramírez | 17 | 22.1 | 12 | 4.03 | 2 | 0 |
| Mason Thompson | 15 | 22.1 | 21 | 4.43 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 15 | 14.1 | 13 | 6.28 | 0 | 8 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have put up two or more round-trippers in 19 games this season, and are 5-14 in those outings.
- Miami has collected five or more extra-base hits in seven games this season, and won every time.
- The team has put up eight or more hits 40 times this season, and has a 19-21 record in those games.
- Miami is 13-8 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Marlins are 2-9 in the 11 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They are 4-2 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Washington is undefeated in six games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have won 15 of the 26 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Washington has a 11-5 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won five of their 13 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-169)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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