Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 15, 2023

The Boston Red Sox (22-19) hope to break their 48-game losing run against the Seattle Mariners (20-20), at 7:10 PM ET on Monday.

As the favorite, the Mariners (-121 on the moneyline to win) take the field at the Red Sox (+102). The contest has an over/under of 10.

The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of May 15, 2023 at 7:27 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Mariners vs Red Sox Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Mariners -121 +102 10

Mariners Betting Insights

  • This season, the Mariners have been favored 29 times and won 15, or 51.7%, of those games.
  • Seattle has a record of 12-11 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -121 on the moneyline.
  • The Mariners have a 54.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Seattle’s games have gone over the total in 18 of its 40 chances.
  • The Mariners are 20-20-0 against the spread in their 40 chances this season.

Mariners Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 7
ERA 2.83
K/9 8.6

Red Sox Betting Insights

  • The Red Sox have been victorious in 12, or 50%, of the 24 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
  • Boston has a win-loss record of 10-11 when favored by +102 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
  • The Red Sox have an implied victory probability of 49.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Boston and its opponents have hit the over in 27 of its 41 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Red Sox are 24-17-0 against the spread in their 41 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Red Sox Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5
HR 7
ERA 5.11
K/9 8.5

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Mariners Probable Pitcher – George Kirby

  • Kirby and his team have a record of 4-3-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he allowed six hits in seven scoreless innings against the Texas Rangers.
  • Kirby has pitched five or more innings in six straight games and will look to extend that streak.
  • When Kirby starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 4-3.
  • Kirby’s team has a 4-3 record in his starts this season.
  • In games Kirby has started this season, the teams are 3-4-0 at hitting the over.

Mariners Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Matt Brash 21 18 34 5 4 1
Trevor Gott 19 20 22 1.8 6 0
Paul Sewald 19 19 25 3.32 0 9
Gabe Speier 18 14.2 13 1.84 5 0
Justin Topa 17 17 16 1.06 8 1

Red Sox Probable Pitcher – Tanner Houck

  • Houck (3-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Red Sox, his eighth of the season.
  • In his last appearance on Sunday, May 7, the righty tossed 5 2/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up three earned runs while surrendering five hits.
  • Houck is looking for his fifth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.3 innings per start.
  • The Red Sox have been the underdog on the moneyline in four of Houck’s starts this season, and they went 2-2 in those matchups.
  • Houck’s team has a 5-2 record in his starts this season.
  • Houck’s starts hit the over on the run total four times in seven games with a set total this season.

Red Sox Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Ryan Brasier 18 21 18 7.29 1 1
John Schreiber 17 16.2 20 2.16 6 0
Richard Bleier 15 17.1 10 5.19 2 0
Josh Winckowski 14 24.2 19 2.55 5 1
Kenley Jansen 12 12.2 17 4.26 0 9

Mariners Hitting Trends

  • The Mariners have a 7-3 record this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Seattle has collected at least five extra-base hits in three games this season, and has gone 2-1 in those contests.
  • The team has notched eight or more hits in 26 games this season, and is 15-11 in those contests.
  • Seattle is 20-5 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Mariners have drawn five or more walks in 15 games this season, and are 13-2 in those contests.

Red Sox Hitting Trends

  • They have won 10 of the 17 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Boston has won eight of its 14 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • In 31 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 17-14.
  • Boston has a 20-7 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 15 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 9-6

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Red Sox (+102)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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