Jake Fraley leads the Cincinnati Reds (17-21) into a matchup against the Miami Marlins (19-20), after homering twice in a 7-4 victory over the Marlins, at 1:10 PM ET on Saturday.
The favored Marlins (-244 on the moneyline) play at home against the Reds (+205). The game’s total is 7.5.
The betting insights in the article below reflect odds as of May 13, 2023 at 1:14 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -244 | +205 | 7.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have entered the game as favorites 14 times this season and won seven, or 50%, of those games.
- Miami has not been bigger favorites this season than the -244 moneyline set for this game.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 70.9% chance of a victory for the Marlins.
- Games involving Miami has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 17 of 39 chances this season.
- The Marlins have an ATS record of 15-24-0 in 39 games with a spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.4 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 5.09 |
| K/9 | 10.9 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have been underdogs in 27 games this season and have come away with the win 11 times (40.7%) in those contests.
- Cincinnati has yet to win this season when listed as an underdog of +205 or worse on the moneyline this season.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 32.8% chance of walking away with the win.
- Contests with Cincinnati has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 20 of 38 chances this season.
- The Reds are 24-14-0 against the spread in their 38 games that had a posted line this season.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- Alcantara’s team has not covered in any of his seven starts with a spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, when he threw 8 1/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs, giving up two earned runs while allowing nine hits.
- Alcantara will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- Alcantara’s team is 2-3 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Alcantara’s team has won two of his seven starts.
- Out of Alcantara’s seven starts with a total this season, four have hit the over.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huascar Brazoban | 16 | 22.2 | 27 | 1.99 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Nardi | 16 | 16.1 | 18 | 4.41 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Floro | 15 | 17.1 | 17 | 3.12 | 5 | 1 |
| A.J. Puk | 14 | 14.2 | 19 | 3.68 | 0 | 6 |
| Matt Barnes | 14 | 16.1 | 16 | 3.86 | 1 | 0 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Derek Law
- The Reds will look to Law (2-4) to open the game and make his second start of the season.
- The right-hander last appeared on Thursday against the New York Mets, when he tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings without surrendering a hit.
- The Reds were the moneyline underdog for one Law start this season — they won.
- His team has won the only game he’s appeared in this season.
- Law’s only start with a total this season went under.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Law | 17 | 19.1 | 19 | 2.79 | 2 | 1 |
| Ian Gibaut | 16 | 17 | 18 | 2.12 | 4 | 1 |
| Buck Farmer | 16 | 18.1 | 16 | 2.95 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Young | 16 | 17.1 | 21 | 3.12 | 4 | 0 |
| Alexis Diaz | 14 | 13.1 | 26 | 2.03 | 1 | 8 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have a 5-7 record this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
- Miami has put up at least five extra-base hits in seven games this season, and won each time.
- The team is 15-14 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
- Miami is 13-1 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Marlins have drawn at least five walks in four games this season, and are 2-2 in those contests.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 12 games this season and are 10-2 in those matchups.
- In 10 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 9-1.
- In 32 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 20-12.
- Cincinnati has a 22-2 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won five of their nine games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Marlins vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Marlins (-244)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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