Pete Alonso takes a two-game homer streak into the New York Mets’ (18-19) game against the Cincinnati Reds (15-21) at 12:35 PM ET on Thursday, at Great American Ball Park.
The Mets are a favorite (-194) at the Reds (+163). The game’s total is 10.
The insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of May 11, 2023 at 11:19 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Mets vs Reds Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | -194 | +163 | 10 |
Mets Betting Insights
- The Mets have been favorites in 28 games this season and won 14 (50%) of those contests.
- This season New York has won three of its nine games, or 33.3%, when favored by at least -194 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Mets, based on the moneyline, is 66%.
- New York’s games have gone over the total in 17 of its 38 chances.
- The Mets are 15-23-0 ATS in their 38 games with a spread this season.
Mets Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 5.65 |
| K/9 | 8.2 |
Reds Betting Insights
- The Reds have won in nine, or 36%, of the 25 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This season, Cincinnati has come away with a win one times in eight chances when named as an underdog of at least +163 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Reds have a 38% chance of walking away with the win.
- Contests with Cincinnati has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 19 of 36 chances this season.
- In 36 games with a line this season, the Reds have a mark of 22-14-0 against the spread.
Reds Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-6 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.4 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 5.22 |
| K/9 | 8.6 |
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Mets Probable Pitcher – Kodai Senga
- Senga’s team is 4-2-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander did not allow a run in six innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the Colorado Rockies.
- Senga has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- Senga’s team has a record of 5-1 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- In games Senga has started, his team is 5-1.
- Games Senga has started this season hit the over two times in six chances.
Mets Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Smith | 15 | 14 | 19 | 1.93 | 7 | 0 |
| Adam Ottavino | 15 | 14 | 15 | 3.21 | 2 | 4 |
| Jeurys Familia | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | 6.39 | 1 | 2 |
| David Robertson | 14 | 15.1 | 20 | 0.59 | 3 | 6 |
| Jeff Brigham | 10 | 11 | 14 | 3.27 | 1 | 0 |
Reds Probable Pitcher – Derek Law
- Law will start for the Reds, his first of the season.
- The 32-year-old right-hander has pitched out of the bullpen 17 times this season.
- Law and his team were underdogs on the moneyline each game he pitched a season ago.
Reds Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Law | 17 | 18 | 18 | 3.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Buck Farmer | 16 | 18.1 | 16 | 2.95 | 2 | 0 |
| Alex Young | 16 | 16.1 | 20 | 3.31 | 4 | 0 |
| Ian Gibaut | 16 | 15.2 | 16 | 2.30 | 4 | 1 |
| Alexis Diaz | 14 | 12.1 | 24 | 2.19 | 1 | 7 |
Mets Hitting Trends
- The Mets have hit at least two dingers in 10 games this season, and are 6-4 in those contests.
- New York has gone 4-2 in its six games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 12-7 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- New York is 14-5 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Mets have drawn at least five walks in nine games this season, and are 6-3 in those contests.
Reds Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in five games this season and are 3-2 in those matchups.
- Cincinnati has gone 2-1 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 10-12 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Cincinnati has a 12-2 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 5-4 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Mets vs. Reds Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Reds (+163)
Over/Under Pick: Under (10)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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