The Atlanta Braves (23-11) and Baltimore Orioles (22-11) play a rubber match on Sunday at 11:35 AM ET, with the series deadlocked at 1-1.
The Braves are favored (-165 on the moneyline) when they square off against the Orioles (+139). The matchup has an over/under set at 9 total runs.
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of May 7, 2023 at 11:14 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Orioles Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -165 | +139 | 9 |
Braves Betting Insights
- This season, the Braves have won 19 out of the 29 games, or 65.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- This season Atlanta has won nine of its 12 games, or 75%, when favored by at least -165 on the moneyline.
- Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Braves have a 62.3% chance to win.
- Games involving Atlanta has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 21 of 34 chances this season.
- The Braves are 17-17-0 against the spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.1 |
| HR | 19 |
| ERA | 4.24 |
| K/9 | 10.5 |
Orioles Betting Insights
- The Orioles have been victorious in seven, or 50%, of the 14 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Baltimore has a win-loss record of 1-2 when favored by +139 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Orioles have a 41.8% chance of walking away with the win.
- Contests with Baltimore has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 20 of 33 chances this season.
- The Orioles have posted a record of 20-13-0 against the spread this season.
Orioles Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.5 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 5.28 |
| K/9 | 9.2 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Bryce Elder
- Elder and his team have a record of 4-2-0 against the spread when he starts.
- The right-hander allowed three hits in seven scoreless innings pitched against the Miami Marlins on Tuesday.
- Elder will look to finish five or more innings for the seventh start in a row.
- Elder’s team has won 75% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (3-1).
- Elder’s team has a 5-1 record in his starts this season.
- In games Elder has started this season, the teams are 4-2-0 at hitting the over.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 17 | 16.2 | 21 | 7.02 | 0 | 7 |
| Dylan Lee | 16 | 15.1 | 19 | 2.93 | 6 | 0 |
| Jesse Chávez | 16 | 13 | 14 | 2.77 | 8 | 1 |
| Nick Anderson | 14 | 14.2 | 18 | 3.68 | 5 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | 12 | 11.2 | 15 | 3.09 | 1 | 0 |
Orioles Probable Pitcher – Tyler Wells
- Wells gets the start for the Orioles, his sixth of the season. He is 2-1 with a 3.34 ERA and 27 strikeouts through 35 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his most recent appearance on Tuesday, the righty tossed six innings against the Kansas City Royals, giving up four earned runs while surrendering three hits.
- Wells will aim to last five or more innings for his seventh straight start. He’s averaging 5.8 innings per outing.
- The Orioles were named the moneyline underdog for one Wells start this season — they lost.
- Wells’ team has a 4-1 record in his starts this season.
- Wells’ starts went over the run total two times in five games with a set total this season.
Orioles Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | 17 | 16.2 | 22 | 2.16 | 8 | 0 |
| Cionel Pérez | 16 | 13.1 | 11 | 4.73 | 6 | 0 |
| Felix Bautista | 15 | 14.2 | 28 | 1.84 | 0 | 7 |
| Danny Coulombe | 15 | 12 | 16 | 3.00 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Baumann | 14 | 17.2 | 17 | 4.08 | 0 | 0 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have a 13-1 record this season in games when they belt two or more homers.
- Atlanta has racked up five or more extra-base hits in nine games this season, and won each time.
- The club has put up eight or more hits in 23 games this season, and is 20-3 in those contests.
- Atlanta has won all of the 20 games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Braves have drawn at least five walks in 12 games this season, and are 9-3 in those contests.
Orioles Hitting Trends
- They have won 10 of the 15 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Baltimore has gone 7-1 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 14-7 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Baltimore has won 17 of its 21 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In nine games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 8-1
Braves vs. Orioles Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-165)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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