Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – May 6, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on May 6, 2023

Bryan Reynolds rides a 10-game hitting streak into the Pittsburgh Pirates’ (20-13) game against the Toronto Blue Jays (19-14), at 6:35 PM ET on Saturday, at PNC Park.

The Blue Jays are a favorite (-154) at the Pirates (+131). The over/under for this game is 8.5.

The betting insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of May 6, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Blue Jays vs Pirates Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Blue Jays -154 +131 8.5

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • The Blue Jays have entered the game as favorites 24 times this season and won 14, or 58.3%, of those games.
  • Toronto has entered 14 games this season favored by -154 or more and is 10-4 in those contests.
  • The moneyline for this contest implies a 60.6% chance of a victory for the Blue Jays.
  • So far this season, Toronto and its opponents have hit the over in 14 of 33 games with a total.
  • The Blue Jays have an ATS record of 17-16-0 in 33 games with a spread this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.0
HR 11
ERA 3.89
K/9 10.5

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have won in 13, or 52%, of the 25 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • Pittsburgh has a mark of 5-8 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +131 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 43.3% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Pittsburgh’s games have gone over the total in 16 of its 33 opportunities.
  • In 33 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 20-13-0 against the spread.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 4.9
HR 8
ERA 3.66
K/9 8.9

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Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Jose Berrios

  • Berrios and his team are 2-4-0 ATS this season when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Monday, when he tossed 5 1/3 innings while giving up five earned runs on 11 hits in a matchup with the Boston Red Sox.
  • Berrios has four starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • Berrios’ team has won 25% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (1-3).
  • Berrios’ team has a 2-4 record in his starts this season.
  • Games Berrios has started this season hit the over three times in six chances.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Erik Swanson 17 16.2 21 1.62 8 0
Jordan Romano 15 13.1 17 3.38 0 9
Yimi Garcia 15 15 18 5.40 6 0
Tim Mayza 14 10.1 9 0.87 3 1
Anthony Bass 12 10.1 8 6.97 1 0

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Juan Carlos Oviedo

  • Oviedo (2-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Pirates, his seventh of the season.
  • The righty last appeared on Sunday against the Washington Nationals, when he threw 2 1/3 innings, allowing seven earned runs while giving up nine hits.
  • Oviedo is looking to secure his fifth start of five or more innings this season in this game.
  • The Pirates have been the moneyline underdog in three of Oviedo’s starts this season, and they went 1-2 in those matchups.
  • Oviedo’s team has put together a 3-3 record over his six starts.
  • Oviedo has started six contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in four of them.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Colin Holderman 14 14 15 3.21 9 0
David Bednar 14 14 19 0.64 0 9
Duane Underwood Jr. 14 15.2 10 2.30 3 2
Dauri Moreta 13 15 21 3.00 2 1
Jose Hernandez 11 13.2 14 1.98 2 0

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • The Blue Jays have a 6-3 record in games this season when they belt two or more homers.
  • Toronto has won each of its four games this season when putting up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has racked up at least eight hits 24 times this season, and has a 16-8 record in those games.
  • Toronto is 11-6 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Blue Jays have gone 4-3 over the seven games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • They’ve won all 13 of their games this year when they hit two or more home runs as a team.
  • Pittsburgh has collected five or more extra-base hits in 10 games this season and won each of them.
  • In 18 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 14-4.
  • Pittsburgh has a 13-2 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 12 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 9-3

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (+131)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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