The Chicago Cubs (15-15) visit the Washington Nationals (12-18) at 1:05 PM ET on Thursday.
The Nationals are an underdog (+156 moneyline odds to win) when they square off against the Cubs (-184). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of May 4, 2023 at 1:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Cubs vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | -184 | +156 | 8.5 |
Cubs Betting Insights
- This season, the Cubs have won eight out of the 17 games, or 47.1%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Chicago has played as favorites of -184 or more twice this season and split those games.
- The implied probability of a win from the Cubs, based on the moneyline, is 64.8%.
- Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 13 of 30 opportunities.
- In 30 games with a spread this season, the Cubs are 17-13-0 ATS.
Cubs Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-7 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.5 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.60 |
| K/9 | 7.2 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have been underdogs in 30 games this season and have come away with the win 12 times (40%) in those contests.
- This season, Washington has been victorious seven times in 13 chances when named as an underdog of at least +156 or longer on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Nationals have a 39.1% chance of pulling out a win.
- Washington and its opponents have gone over in 13 of its 30 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Nationals are 18-12-0 against the spread in their 30 games that had a posted line this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 6 |
| ERA | 4.50 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
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Cubs Probable Pitcher – Jameson Taillon
- When Taillon starts, his team is 1-2-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Sunday, April 16, when he threw five scoreless innings while allowing two hits against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Taillon’s team is 0-2 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
- Taillon and his team have lost each of the three games he’s started this season.
- Games Taillon has started this season hit the over two times in three chances.
Cubs Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 14 | 13 | 22 | 1.38 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Rucker | 13 | 11.1 | 14 | 3.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Fulmer | 13 | 12.1 | 16 | 6.57 | 2 | 1 |
| Brad Boxberger | 12 | 11 | 9 | 3.27 | 1 | 2 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 11 | 14.2 | 18 | 3.07 | 5 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Patrick Corbin
- Corbin gets the start for the Nationals, his seventh of the season. He is 1-4 with a 5.74 ERA and 21 strikeouts through 31 1/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent time out was on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when the lefty tossed 5 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs while giving up seven hits.
- Corbin will try to build upon a six-game streak of pitching five or more innings (he’s averaging 5.2 frames per outing).
- The Nationals have been the moneyline underdog in six of Corbin’s starts this season, and they went 2-4 in those games.
- Corbin’s team is 2-4 in his six starts.
- Corbin has had six starts with a set total this season, and the teams combined to go over the total in four of those outings.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Harvey | 13 | 13.2 | 16 | 1.98 | 7 | 0 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 13 | 12 | 10 | 1.50 | 5 | 1 |
| Mason Thompson | 13 | 20.2 | 20 | 2.18 | 1 | 1 |
| Erasmo Ramírez | 12 | 13.1 | 7 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 12 | 12 | 10 | 6.00 | 0 | 7 |
Cubs Hitting Trends
- The Cubs have an 8-2 record this season in games when they smash at least two homers.
- Chicago has put up at least five extra-base hits in seven games this season, and won each time.
- The team has collected at least eight hits in 20 games this season, and is 13-7 in those contests.
- Chicago has a 12-3 record in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Cubs have gone 5-4 over the nine games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They are 2-1 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Washington is undefeated in four games this season with five or more extra-base hits as a team.
- They have a record of 10-9 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Washington has won seven of its 11 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In seven games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 4-3
Cubs vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-184)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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