The Pittsburgh Pirates (20-11) will attempt to snap a three-game losing streak when visiting the Tampa Bay Rays (25-6) at 1:10 PM ET on Thursday.
The Rays are a home favorite (-188) versus the Pirates (+160). The matchup has an over/under of 8 total runs.
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of May 4, 2023 at 1:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Rays vs Pirates Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | -188 | +160 | 8 |
Rays Betting Insights
- This season, the Rays have won 25 out of the 30 games, or 83.3%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Tampa Bay has a record of 11-1 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -188 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Rays, based on the moneyline, is 65.3%.
- Tampa Bay’s games have gone over the total in 17 of its 31 chances.
- The Rays have an ATS record of 22-9-0 in 31 games with a spread this season.
Rays Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.2 |
| HR | 18 |
| ERA | 3.34 |
| K/9 | 7.5 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have been underdogs in 23 games this season and have come away with the win 13 times (56.5%) in those contests.
- This season, Pittsburgh has been victorious two times in four chances when named as an underdog of at least +160 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Pirates have an implied victory probability of 38.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have gone over in 16 of its 31 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- In 31 games with a line this season, the Pirates have a mark of 19-12-0 against the spread.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.1 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 3.00 |
| K/9 | 9.5 |
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Rays Probable Pitcher – Zach Eflin
- When Eflin starts, his team is 3-1-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Friday, when he threw five innings against the Chicago White Sox, giving up two earned runs while allowing six hits.
- Eflin will look to finish five or more innings for the fifth start in a row.
- Eflin and his team have won each of the four games he’s started as the moneyline favorite.
- Eflin’s team has yet to lose any of his starts this season.
- Games Eflin has started this season hit the over two times in four chances.
Rays Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Poche | 13 | 11.1 | 5 | 1.59 | 3 | 0 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | 13 | 10.2 | 12 | 2.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | 12 | 11.1 | 13 | 1.59 | 4 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | 11 | 17 | 14 | 3.71 | 2 | 1 |
| Jalen Beeks | 9 | 14.1 | 8 | 6.91 | 1 | 0 |
Pirates Probable Pitcher – Vince Velasquez
- Velasquez gets the start for the Pirates, his seventh of the season. He is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his last outing on Saturday against the Washington Nationals, the righty tossed six scoreless innings while surrendering five hits.
- Velasquez will look to last five or more innings for his fifth straight start. He’s averaging 5.4 innings per outing.
- The Pirates have a 3-2 record in Velásquez’s five starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Velásquez’s team is 4-2 in his six starts.
- Velásquez’s starts went over the run total two times in six games with a set total this season.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 13 | 13 | 17 | 0.69 | 0 | 9 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 13 | 13.2 | 9 | 2.63 | 3 | 2 |
| Colin Holderman | 13 | 13 | 12 | 3.46 | 9 | 0 |
| Dauri Moreta | 12 | 13.1 | 18 | 3.38 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 10 | 12.2 | 13 | 1.42 | 2 | 0 |
Rays Hitting Trends
- The Rays are 15-2 this season in games when they send out two or more long balls.
- Tampa Bay has gone 14-1 in its 15 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
- The club has notched eight or more hits in 25 games this season, and is 21-4 in those contests.
- Tampa Bay has a 19-1 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Rays have drawn at least five walks in nine games this season, and won every time.
Pirates Hitting Trends
- They’ve won all 13 of their games in which they’ve hit two or more home runs this season.
- Pittsburgh has collected five or more extra-base hits in 10 games this season and won each of them.
- They have a record of 14-4 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 15 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 13-2.
- They have won nine of their 12 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Rays vs. Pirates Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Rays (-188)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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