The Miami Marlins (16-13) and Atlanta Braves (19-10) square off on Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET, beginning a three-game series at LoanDepot park.
The Marlins are a home favorite (-121) against the Braves (+103). The matchup has an over/under set at 8 total runs.
The betting facts in the article below are based off odds valid as of May 2, 2023 at 7:23 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Braves Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -121 | +103 | 8 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- This season, the Marlins have won six out of the 10 games in which they’ve been favored.
- Miami is 5-2 this season when entering a game favored by -121 or more on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 54.8% chance to win.
- Miami’s games have gone over the total in 12 of its 29 chances.
- In 29 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 13-16-0 ATS.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 4.92 |
| K/9 | 9.0 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have won in two of the three contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Atlanta has been listed as an underdog of +103 or more on two occasions this season and won both games.
- The Braves have an implied victory probability of 49.3% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.
- Atlanta’s games have gone over the total in 17 of its 29 opportunities.
- In 29 games with a line this season, the Braves have a mark of 14-15-0 against the spread.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 18 |
| ERA | 4.24 |
| K/9 | 10.5 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- Alcantara and his team have yet to cover the spread in any of their five chances this season.
- The right-hander gave up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched on Wednesday in his last outing, a matchup with the Atlanta Braves.
- Alcantara will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
- Alcantara’s team has won 33.3% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (1-2).
- In games Alcantara has started, his team is 1-4.
- Games Alcantara has started this season hit the over three times in five chances.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 13 | 12.1 | 13 | 5.84 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Barnes | 12 | 12 | 11 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 12 | 17.2 | 19 | 2.55 | 4 | 0 |
| Dylan Floro | 12 | 12.2 | 12 | 2.13 | 5 | 1 |
| A.J. Puk | 11 | 12 | 13 | 1.50 | 0 | 5 |
Braves Probable Pitcher – Bryce Elder
- Elder (2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Braves, his sixth of the season.
- His last appearance came on Wednesday against the Miami Marlins, when the right-hander threw 5 1/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while allowing five hits.
- Elder is trying for his sixth straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages 5.8 innings per start.
- The Braves were named the moneyline underdog for one Elder start this season — they won.
- Elder’s team has put together a 4-1 record in his five starts.
- Elder’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in four of five games.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Chávez | 14 | 11 | 11 | 3.27 | 8 | 1 |
| A.J. Minter | 14 | 13.2 | 16 | 8.56 | 0 | 6 |
| Dylan Lee | 14 | 13.1 | 15 | 2.03 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Anderson | 12 | 12.2 | 18 | 3.55 | 4 | 1 |
| Joe Jiménez | 10 | 9 | 12 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins are 4-3 this season in games when they hit at least two long balls.
- Miami is 19th in baseball with a .382 slugging percentage.
- The club is 13-6 in the games this season it has collected at least eight hits.
- Miami has won each of the seven games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Marlins are 2-2 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Braves Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 11 games this season and are 10-1 in those matchups.
- Atlanta has collected five or more extra-base hits in seven games this season and won each of them.
- They have won 16 of the 18 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Atlanta has won each of its 16 games with five or more runs scored this season.
- In 11 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 8-3
Marlins vs. Braves Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (+103)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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