The Pittsburgh Pirates (18-8) and Washington Nationals (9-15) clash on Friday at 7:05 PM ET, opening a three-game series at Nationals Park.
The Nationals are an underdog at home (+123) against the Pirates (-144). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of April 28, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Pirates vs Nationals Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | -144 | +123 | 8.5 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- This season, the Pirates have been listed as the favorite in five games and won them all.
- Pittsburgh is undefeated in three games this season when favored by -144 or more on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Pirates, based on the moneyline, is 59%.
- Pittsburgh and its opponents have hit the over in 13 of its 26 games with a total this season.
- The Pirates have an ATS record of 17-9-0 in 26 games with a spread this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.6 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 2.50 |
| K/9 | 10.1 |
Nationals Betting Insights
- The Nationals have been chosen as underdogs in 24 games this year and have walked away with the win nine times (37.5%) in those games.
- Washington has a win-loss record of 8-12 when favored by +123 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Nationals have a 44.8% chance of walking away with the win.
- Washington’s games have gone over the total in 11 of its 24 opportunities.
- The Nationals have an against the spread record of 15-9-0 in 24 games with a line this season.
Nationals Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.2 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 3.27 |
| K/9 | 8.6 |
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Pirates Probable Pitcher – Rich Hill
- Hill and his team are 2-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander gave up one earned run and allowed six hits in five innings pitched against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday.
- Hill will look to finish five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
- Hill’s team won his only start as a favorite this season.
- Hill’s team has a 3-2 record in his starts this season.
- In Hill’s five starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Holderman | 12 | 12 | 12 | 3.75 | 8 | 0 |
| Duane Underwood Jr. | 12 | 12.2 | 9 | 2.84 | 3 | 2 |
| David Bednar | 12 | 12 | 15 | 0.75 | 0 | 8 |
| Dauri Moreta | 10 | 10 | 15 | 4.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 8 | 9.2 | 9 | 0.93 | 2 | 0 |
Nationals Probable Pitcher – Chad Kuhl
- Kuhl (0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Nationals, his fourth of the season.
- The righty last pitched on Saturday against the Minnesota Twins, when he tossed 3 2/3 innings, allowing one earned run while giving up three hits.
- Kuhl will look to collect his third outing of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 4.5 innings per appearance.
- The Nationals are 1-2 in Kuhl’s three starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Over Kuhl’s three starts, his team is 1-2.
- Kuhl’s team has hit the over in all of his three starts with a set total this season.
Nationals Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Thompson | 11 | 19 | 17 | 1.89 | 1 | 1 |
| Erasmo Ramírez | 11 | 12.1 | 7 | 5.84 | 2 | 0 |
| Hunter Harvey | 10 | 10.1 | 13 | 2.61 | 6 | 0 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | 0.93 | 4 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7.00 | 0 | 5 |
Pirates Hitting Trends
- The Pirates are a perfect 11-0 in games when they hit two or more homers this season.
- Pittsburgh has put up five or more extra-base hits in eight games this season, and won every time.
- The team is 12-4 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Pittsburgh is 11-2 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Pirates have gone 7-2 in the nine games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Nationals Hitting Trends
- They have won two of the three games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Washington has collected five or more extra-base hits in four games this season and won each of them.
- They have a record of 7-7 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Washington has a 6-4 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- In seven games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 4-3
Pirates vs. Nationals Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Pirates (-144)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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