A pair of the league’s best hitters face off when the Miami Marlins (13-13) and Chicago Cubs (14-10) play at 6:40 PM ET on Friday, at LoanDepot park. Luis Arraez has a .425 batting average (first in league) for the Marlins, while Nico Hoerner ranks eighth at .336.
The Marlins are projected as a close favorite (-110 to win on the moneyline) against the Cubs (-108). The total for the game is 7.5 total runs.
The betting facts in the following article are based off odds valid as of April 28, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Marlins vs Cubs Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | -110 | -108 | 7.5 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- This season, the Marlins have won five out of the nine games in which they’ve been favored.
- Miami has a record of 5-4, a 55.6% win rate, when favored by -110 or more by bookmakers this season.
- The implied probability of a win from the Marlins, based on the moneyline, is 52.4%.
- So far this season, Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 11 of 26 games with a total.
- The Marlins are 11-15-0 ATS in their 26 games with a spread this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.6 |
| HR | 10 |
| ERA | 4.60 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
Cubs Betting Insights
- The Cubs have been underdogs in 11 games this season and have come away with the win six times (54.5%) in those contests.
- This season, Chicago has been victorious six times in 11 chances when named as an underdog of at least -108 or longer on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Cubs have a 51.9% chance of walking away with the win.
- Chicago and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 12 of its 24 opportunities.
- The Cubs have posted a record of 15-9-0 against the spread this season.
Cubs Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.2 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 3.10 |
| K/9 | 8.8 |
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Marlins Probable Pitcher – Jesus Luzardo
- Luzardo’s team is 4-1-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The left-hander gave up four earned runs and allowed eight hits in 4 1/3 innings pitched against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday.
- Luzardo has three starts of five or more innings this season in five chances. He averages 5.4 innings per outing.
- Luzardo’s team won his only start as a favorite this season.
- Luzardo’s team is 4-1 when he starts this season.
- Games started by Luzardo have a 2-1-2 record at hitting the over this season.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Nardi | 11 | 11.1 | 13 | 3.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Floro | 11 | 11.2 | 12 | 2.31 | 5 | 1 |
| Huascar Brazoban | 10 | 15 | 16 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Matt Barnes | 10 | 10.1 | 10 | 5.23 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Puk | 9 | 10 | 10 | 1.80 | 0 | 4 |
Cubs Probable Pitcher – Marcus Stroman
- Stroman makes the start for the Cubs, his sixth of the season. He is 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty’s last time out was on Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when he tossed five innings, surrendering five earned runs while giving up six hits.
- Stroman will try to last five or more innings for his sixth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.8 frames per outing.
- The Cubs are 1-2 in Stroman’s three starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Stroman’s team has a 3-2 record in his starts this season.
- Stroman’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in one of five games.
Cubs Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Fulmer | 11 | 10.1 | 14 | 7.84 | 2 | 1 |
| Brad Boxberger | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3.60 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 11 | 10 | 16 | 1.80 | 6 | 0 |
| Michael Rucker | 11 | 10.2 | 14 | 2.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Merryweather | 10 | 9.2 | 11 | 8.38 | 0 | 0 |
Marlins Hitting Trends
- The Marlins have a 4-3 record in games this season when they hit two or more home runs.
- Miami is 19th in the majors with a .384 slugging percentage.
- The team is 10-6 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Miami has won all of the six games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Marlins are 2-2 in the four games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Cubs Hitting Trends
- They are 7-1 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Chicago has won each of its six games this season in which it has connected for five or more extra-base hits.
- In 15 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 12-3.
- In 13 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 11-2.
- In seven games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 5-2
Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Cubs (-108)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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