The Houston Astros (14-11) will look for Mauricio Dubon to continue a 20-game batting streak when they match up versus the Philadelphia Phillies (13-13) at 8:10 PM ET on Friday, at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros are favored (-120 moneyline odds) when they host the Phillies (+100). The matchup has an over/under of 7.5 total runs.
The betting insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of April 28, 2023 at 7:15 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Astros vs Phillies Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | -120 | +100 | 7.5 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have entered the game as favorites 15 times this season and won seven, or 46.7%, of those games.
- Houston has a record of 6-7 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -120 on the moneyline.
- The Astros have a 54.5% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Houston’s games have gone over the total in 15 of its 25 chances.
- The Astros are 14-11-0 against the spread this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 8 |
| ERA | 2.53 |
| K/9 | 10.6 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have won in four of the 10 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Philadelphia has a win-loss record of 2-6 when favored by +100 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Phillies have a 50% chance of pulling out a win.
- Contests with Philadelphia has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 12 of 26 chances this season.
- The Phillies are 11-15-0 against the spread in their 26 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.24 |
| K/9 | 10.0 |
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Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez
- Valdez and his team are 2-3-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander last pitched on Saturday, when he gave up three earned runs and allowed eight hits in seven innings against the Atlanta Braves.
- Valdez will look to finish five or more innings for the sixth start in a row.
- Valdez’s team has been victorious in 25% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 1-3.
- Valdez’s team is 2-3 when he starts this season.
- In Valdez’s five starts with a total, the teams have hit the over four times.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 12 | 12.1 | 19 | 0.73 | 3 | 2 |
| Ryan Pressly | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 4.35 | 0 | 2 |
| Rafael Montero | 11 | 10 | 12 | 2.70 | 1 | 1 |
| Phil Maton | 10 | 11.2 | 13 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Héctor Neris | 10 | 11.1 | 13 | 2.38 | 1 | 1 |
Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola
- Nola gets the start for the Phillies, his sixth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 22 strikeouts through 28 1/3 innings pitched.
- In his last appearance on Friday, April 21, the right-hander threw seven innings against the Colorado Rockies, giving up three earned runs while surrendering four hits.
- Nola will try to go five or more innings for his fifth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.6 frames per outing.
- The Phillies were the underdog on the moneyline for two Nola starts this season — they lost both.
- Over Nola’s five starts, his team is 2-3.
- Nola’s starts hit the over on the run total three times in five games with a set total this season.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | 13 | 11.2 | 15 | 3.09 | 6 | 0 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 12 | 10.1 | 10 | 6.97 | 3 | 0 |
| Connor Brogdon | 12 | 12.2 | 12 | 2.84 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 12 | 11 | 15 | 4.09 | 3 | 3 |
| José Alvarado | 11 | 11.1 | 22 | 0.79 | 3 | 4 |
Astros Hitting Trends
- The Astros are 4-4 this season in games when they hit at least two bombs.
- Houston has gone 4-1 in its five games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has collected at least eight hits in 16 games this season, and is 12-4 in those contests.
- Houston is 13-2 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Astros are 4-3 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Phillies Hitting Trends
- They’ve won all seven of their games this year when they hit two or more home runs as a team.
- Philadelphia has won seven of its nine games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- In 18 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 10-8.
- Philadelphia has won eight of its nine games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have won three of their five games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Astros vs. Phillies Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Astros (-120)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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