The Philadelphia Phillies (12-13) and Seattle Mariners (11-13) play on Thursday at 1:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, attempting to break a 1-1 series tie.
The Phillies are a tight favorite (-112 moneyline odds) when they take on the Mariners (-106). The matchup has an over/under of 8.5 total runs.
The betting trends in the following article are based off odds valid as of April 27, 2023 at 11:14 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Mariners Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -112 | -106 | 8.5 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- This season, the Phillies have won nine out of the 16 games, or 56.2%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Philadelphia has entered 16 games this season favored by -112 or more and is 9-7 in those contests.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 52.8% chance of a victory for the Phillies.
- Games involving Philadelphia has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 12 of 25 chances this season.
- The Phillies are 10-15-0 against the spread in their 25 chances this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.2 |
| HR | 15 |
| ERA | 3.44 |
| K/9 | 9.9 |
Mariners Betting Insights
- The Mariners have been chosen as underdogs in seven games this year and have walked away with the win three times (42.9%) in those games.
- Seattle has a mark of 3-4 in contests where bookmakers favor it by -106 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Mariners have a 51.5% chance of walking away with the win.
- Seattle’s games have gone over the total in 13 of its 24 opportunities.
- In 24 games with a line this season, the Mariners have a mark of 11-13-0 against the spread.
Mariners Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 3.86 |
| K/9 | 9.8 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Matt Strahm
- Strahm and his team are 1-2-0 ATS this season when he starts.
- The left-hander’s last appearance was on Thursday, when he threw 5 1/3 innings against the Colorado Rockies, giving up three earned runs while allowing three hits.
- Strahm’s team is 0-2 this season when he starts and they’re favored on the moneyline.
- Strahm’s team has a 1-2 record in his starts this season.
- Games started by Strahm have a 2-1-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | 12 | 10.1 | 14 | 3.48 | 5 | 0 |
| José Alvarado | 11 | 11.1 | 22 | 0.79 | 3 | 4 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 11 | 9.2 | 10 | 7.45 | 2 | 0 |
| Connor Brogdon | 11 | 12 | 11 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 11 | 10 | 13 | 4.50 | 3 | 2 |
Mariners Probable Pitcher – George Kirby
- Kirby (2-1) gets the starting nod for the Mariners in his fifth start of the season. He has a 3.57 ERA in 22 2/3 innings pitched, with 17 strikeouts.
- His most recent appearance was on Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals, when the right-hander went six innings, surrendering two earned runs while giving up three hits.
- Kirby will try to last five or more innings for his fourth straight start. He’s averaging 5.6 frames per outing.
- The Mariners have not been a moneyline underdog when Kirby starts this season.
- Kirby’s team has won two of his four starts.
- Kirby has had four starts that sportsbooks set a total for this season, and three of those games hit the over.
Mariners Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brash | 13 | 10.2 | 22 | 5.91 | 3 | 0 |
| Paul Sewald | 13 | 13 | 17 | 3.46 | 0 | 7 |
| Penn Murfee | 12 | 10.1 | 10 | 1.74 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Gott | 12 | 13 | 11 | 2.08 | 5 | 0 |
| Gabe Speier | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have hit at least a pair of homers in seven games this season, and won each time.
- Philadelphia is 7-2 in games this season when it has had five or more extra-base hits.
- The club is 10-8 in the games this season it has totaled at least eight hits.
- Philadelphia is 8-1 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Phillies are 3-2 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Mariners Hitting Trends
- They have won four of the seven games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- In three games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 2-1.
- They have won six of the 10 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- In 13 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 8-5.
- They have a 3-2 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Phillies vs. Mariners Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-112)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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