The Cleveland Guardians (10-9) and Miami Marlins (10-9) square off on Saturday at 3:10 PM ET, opening a three-game series at Progressive Field.
The Marlins (+115 underdog on the moneyline) visit the Guardians (-137). The game’s total is 7.5.
The betting facts in the following article are based off odds valid as of April 22, 2023 at 11:13 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Guardians vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians | -137 | +115 | 7.5 |
Guardians Betting Insights
- The Guardians have been favorites in 12 games this season and won six (50%) of those contests.
- Cleveland has entered eight games this season favored by -137 or more and is 5-3 in those contests.
- The moneyline for this contest implies a 57.8% chance of a victory for the Guardians.
- Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 10 of its 19 chances.
- The Guardians are 6-13-0 ATS in their 19 games with a spread this season.
Guardians Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 5 |
| ERA | 3.80 |
| K/9 | 7.0 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been chosen as underdogs in 10 games this year and have walked away with the win five times (50%) in those games.
- This season, Miami has come away with a win three times in five chances when named as an underdog of at least +115 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Marlins have an implied victory probability of 46.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Contests with Miami has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in six of 19 chances this season.
- In 19 games with a line this season, the Marlins have a mark of 8-11-0 against the spread.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.9 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 3.72 |
| K/9 | 9.6 |
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Guardians Probable Pitcher – Shane Bieber
- Bieber and his team have not covered in any of the four games with a spread he’s started this season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Sunday, when he tossed six innings while giving up three earned runs on nine hits in a matchup with the Washington Nationals.
- Bieber has pitched five or more innings in four straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- When Bieber starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 1-2.
- In games Bieber has started, his team is 1-3.
- In Bieber’s four starts with a total, the teams have hit the over two times.
Guardians Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Karinchak | 11 | 10 | 16 | 5.40 | 6 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Clase | 10 | 10 | 8 | 2.70 | 0 | 6 |
| Trevor Stephan | 10 | 9.1 | 10 | 1.93 | 1 | 1 |
| Eli Morgan | 7 | 8.1 | 11 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Tim Herrin | 7 | 7.2 | 11 | 5.87 | 1 | 0 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Sandy Alcantara
- Alcantara makes the start for the Marlins, his fifth of the season. He is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings pitched.
- His most recent time out was on Sunday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, when the right-hander tossed six innings, surrendering four earned runs while giving up seven hits.
- Alcantara enters the game with three outings of five or more innings pitched this campaign.
- The Marlins were the moneyline underdog for one Alcantara start this season — they lost.
- In Alcantara’s four starts, his team is 1-3.
- Alcantara has started four contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to hit the over in two of them.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huascar Brazoban | 8 | 12 | 14 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Nardi | 8 | 8.1 | 9 | 4.32 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Floro | 8 | 8.2 | 9 | 0.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Barnes | 7 | 6.2 | 7 | 2.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner Scott | 7 | 8.1 | 7 | 4.32 | 1 | 1 |
Guardians Hitting Trends
- The Guardians rank 29th in baseball with 10 home runs. They average 0.5 per game.
- Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors, slugging .347.
- The club has totaled eight or more hits 10 times this season, and has a 6-4 record in those games.
- Cleveland has a 6-1 record in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Guardians have gone 8-2 in the 10 games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve won all four of their games this year when they hit two or more home runs as a team.
- Miami is 20th in the majors, slugging .383.
- They have a record of 8-4 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Miami has won each of its four games with five or more runs scored this season.
- In three games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 1-2
Guardians vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Guardians (-137)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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