Patrick Mahomes II and his Kansas City Chiefs teammates face the Los Angeles Chargers in a Week 11 NFL matchup at 8:20 PM ET on Sunday. Let’s break down Mahomes’ prop bets, stats and trends ahead of this contest to help you come up with good predictions.
Patrick Mahomes II Player Props Vs The Chargers
2022 Betting Outcomes
| Passing | Rushing | |
|---|---|---|
| Games Over Yards Prop | 6 | 5 |
| Games w/1+ TDs | 9 | 1 |
| Games w/2+ TDs | 7 | 0 |
Patrick Mahomes II’s Passing Trends
- Mahomes has passed for 2,936 yards (326.2 per game) while completing 66.9% of his passes (245-for-366), with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
- Mahomes averages 8.0 yards per attempt passing this season, which ranks seventh in the NFL.
- Mahomes’ 2,936 passing yards and 25 TDs both rank first in the NFL.
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Mahomes’ Rushing Trends
- He’s also carried the ball 34 times for 215 yards and one touchdown, averaging 23.9 yards per game.
- He averages 6.3 rushing yards per carry.
This Week’s Predictions
| Mahomes (2022) | League AVG (2022) | vs Chargers (2022) | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 293.5+ Passing Yards | 55.6% | 20.1% | 11.1% | 40% |
| 1+ Passing TDs | 100% | 78.9% | 77.8% | 91.8% |
| 2+ Passing TDs | 77.8% | 41.3% | 55.6% | 67.7% |
| 28.5+ Rushing Yards | 33.3% | 81.7% | 100% | 56% |
| 1+ Rushing TDs | 11.1% | 37.1% | 50.0% | 24.1% |
| 2+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 6.3% |
The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.
The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).
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