Patrick Mahomes II and the Kansas City Chiefs will face the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl at 6:30 PM ET on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes II Player Props vs the 49ers
| Pass Yds Over/Under | Pass Yds Over Payout | Rush Yds Over/Under | Rush Yds Over Payout | Pass TDs Over/Under | Pass TDs Over Payout | Rush Att Over/Under | Rush Att Over Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261.5 | -115 | 25.5 | -125 | 1.5 | -180 | 4.5 | -120 |
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2023 Betting Outcomes
| Passing | Rushing | |
|---|---|---|
| Games Over Yards Prop | 5 | 9 |
| Games w/ 1+ TDs | 15 | 0 |
| Games w/ 2+ TDs | 9 | 0 |
Patrick Mahomes II’s Passing Trends
- Mahomes has passed for 4,183 yards (261.4 per game) while completing 67.2% of his passes (401-for-597), with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
- With 4,183 yards on 597 attempts, Mahomes ranks 19th in the league with 7.0 passing yards per attempt.
- Mahomes’ 27 passing touchdowns and 4,183 yards rank eighth and sixth, respectively, in NFL action.
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Mahomes’ Rushing Trends
- Mahomes has added 389 rushing yards on 75 carries, averaging 24.3 yards per game.
- He averages 5.2 rushing yards per carry.
This Week’s Predictions
| Mahomes (2023) | League AVG (2023) | vs 49ers (2023) | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261.5+ Passing Yards | 50% | 30.1% | 31.6% | 42.9% |
| 1+ Passing TDs | 93.8% | 77.4% | 78.9% | 88% |
| 2+ Passing TDs | 56.2% | 39.2% | 36.8% | 49.2% |
| 25.5+ Rushing Yards | 56.2% | 79% | 72% | 63% |
| 1+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 35.8% | 40% | 14.5% |
| 2+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 7.4% | 0% | 0.9% |
The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.
The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).
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