Patrick Mahomes II: NFL Player Prop Bets And Picks For The Wild Card Playoff Round Chiefs vs Dolphins – January 13, 2024

Written By PlayPicks Staff on January 12, 2024

Patrick Mahomes II and his Kansas City Chiefs teammates face the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes II Player Props vs the Dolphins

Pass Yds Over/Under Pass Yds Over Payout Pass TDs Over/Under Pass TDs Over Payout Rush Yds Over/Under Rush Yds Over Payout Anytime TD Odds
242.5 -115 1.5 -130 26.5 -115 +400
Pass Yds Over/Under Pass Yds Over Payout Rush Yds Over/Under Rush Yds Over Payout Pass TDs Over/Under Pass TDs Over Payout Rush Att Over/Under Rush Att Over Payout
242.5 -115 26.5 -115 1.5 -130 4.5 -110

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2023 Betting Outcomes

Passing Rushing
Games Over Yards Prop 5 9
Games w/ 1+ TDs 15 0
Games w/ 2+ TDs 9 0

Patrick Mahomes II’s Passing Trends

  • Mahomes has passed for 4,183 yards (261.4 per game) while completing 67.2% of his passes (401-for-597), with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
  • With 4,183 yards on 597 attempts, Mahomes ranks 19th in the league with 7.0 passing yards per attempt.
  • Mahomes is sixth in the NFL with 4,183 passing yards, and eighth with 27 touchdowns through the air.

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Mahomes’ Rushing Trends

  • Mahomes has also rushed 75 times for 389 yards, averaging 24.3 yards per game.
  • He picks up 5.2 yards per carry (389 yards on 75 attempts).

This Week’s Predictions

Mahomes (2023) League AVG (2023) vs Dolphins (2023) Prediction
242.5+ Passing Yards 56.2% 39.5% 47.1% 51.8%
1+ Passing TDs 93.8% 76.6% 82.4% 88.8%
2+ Passing TDs 56.2% 38.7% 41.2% 50.3%
26.5+ Rushing Yards 50% 81.6% 76.9% 60.7%
1+ Rushing TDs 0% 35.4% 34.6% 13.1%
2+ Rushing TDs 0% 7.2% 3.8% 1.8%

The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.

The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).

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