The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes II will face the Buffalo Bills at 4:25 PM ET on Sunday for a Week 14 NFL contest.
Patrick Mahomes II Player Props vs the Bills
| Pass Yds Over/Under | Pass Yds Over Payout | Pass TDs Over/Under | Pass TDs Over Payout | Rush Yds Over/Under | Rush Yds Over Payout | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274.5 | -115 | 2.5 | +160 | 29.5 | -125 | +340 |
| Pass Yds Over/Under | Pass Yds Over Payout | Rush Yds Over/Under | Rush Yds Over Payout | Pass TDs Over/Under | Pass TDs Over Payout | Rush Att Over/Under | Rush Att Over Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274.5 | -115 | 29.5 | -125 | 2.5 | +160 | 5.5 | +114 |
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2023 Betting Outcomes
| Passing | Rushing | |
|---|---|---|
| Games Over Yards Prop | 4 | 8 |
| Games w/ 1+ TDs | 11 | 0 |
| Games w/ 2+ TDs | 8 | 0 |
Patrick Mahomes II’s Passing Trends
- Mahomes has passed for 3,127 yards (260.6 per game) while completing 67.8% of his passes (301-for-444), with 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
- Mahomes is averaging 7.0 yards per attempt this season, which ranks 15th in the NFL.
- Mahomes is fifth in the NFL with 22 passing touchdowns, and eighth with 3,127 passing yards.
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Mahomes’ Rushing Trends
- Mahomes also has 331 rushing yards on 57 carries, averaging 27.6 yards per game on the ground.
- He averages 5.8 yards per rush.
This Week’s Predictions
| Mahomes (2023) | League AVG (2023) | vs Bills (2023) | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 274.5+ Passing Yards | 41.7% | 27.5% | 23.1% | 35.3% |
| 1+ Passing TDs | 91.7% | 76.6% | 76.9% | 86.1% |
| 2+ Passing TDs | 66.7% | 37.9% | 38.5% | 56% |
| 29.5+ Rushing Yards | 41.7% | 82.3% | 83.3% | 57.2% |
| 1+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 34.5% | 27.8% | 11.3% |
| 2+ Rushing TDs | 0% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 5.1% |
The “Prediction” column gives our estimate of how likely the player is to meet or exceed the listed total for the stat in this week’s game. For example, that means if the prediction is greater than 55% on a prop that is listed with -110 odds (an implied probability of just over 50%), it would be a recommended pick.
The “league average” and “versus opposing team” percentages show how often a player went over the stat total (while meeting the standard NFL qualifying participation threshold) compared to the total number of qualified players across the league in that stat category (passing, rushing or receiving).
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