Astros vs. Rangers Prediction: ALCS Game 1 Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 15, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 12, 2023

The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers in the first game of the ALCS, at 8:15 PM ET on Sunday.

The favored Astros (-140 on the moneyline to win) host the Rangers (+117). The over/under in the game is 9 total runs.

The insights in the following article reflect odds as of October 13, 2023 at 9:15 AM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Astros vs Rangers Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Astros -140 +117 9

Astros Betting Insights

  • The Astros have been favorites in 120 games this season and won 63 (52.5%) of those contests.
  • Houston has a record of 42-37, a 53.2% win rate, when favored by -140 or more by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Astros have a 58.3% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
  • Houston’s games have gone over the total in 87 of its 166 chances.
  • The Astros are 83-83-0 ATS in their 166 games with a spread this season.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 8-2
Runs Per Game 4.6
HR 17
ERA 2.33
K/9 10.7

Rangers Betting Insights

  • The Rangers have been chosen as underdogs in 56 games this year and have walked away with the win 29 times (51.8%) in those games.
  • Texas has a mark of 10-13 in contests where sportsbooks favor it by +117 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Rangers have a 46.1% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Texas and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 86 of its 167 opportunities.
  • The Rangers are 91-76-0 against the spread in their 167 games that had a posted line this season.

Rangers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 4.5
HR 12
ERA 2.48
K/9 9.0

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Astros Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander

  • Verlander’s team is 13-15-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander did not allow a run in six innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.
  • Verlander will look to finish five or more innings for the 22nd start in a row.
  • He has kept opponents from scoring an earned run in two straight appearances.
  • When Verlander starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 13-9.
  • Verlander’s team has won 16 of his 27 starts this season.
  • Games Verlander has started this season hit the over 12 times in 28 chances.

Astros Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Bryan Abreu 70 72 100 1.75 24 5
Héctor Neris 69 68.1 77 1.71 31 2
Phil Maton 67 66 74 3.00 10 1
Rafael Montero 67 67.1 79 5.08 10 1
Ryan Pressly 63 65.1 74 3.58 0 31

Rangers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Stratton 63 82.2 81 4.03 8 1
Aroldis Chapman 59 58.1 103 3.09 14 6
Will Smith 59 57.1 55 4.40 8 22
José Leclerc 56 57 67 2.68 8 4
Brock Burke 52 59.2 52 4.37 12 0

Astros Hitting Trends

  • The Astros have a 46-16 record this season in games when they belt two or more home runs.
  • Houston is 31-10 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The club is 84-31 in the games this season it has racked up at least eight hits.
  • Houston is 78-16 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Astros are 40-10 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Rangers Hitting Trends

  • They are 58-21 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • Texas has gone 40-14 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have won 88 of the 129 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • Texas has a 82-24 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 62 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 41-21

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (-140)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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