The Minnesota Twins are at home for Game 4 of the ALDS versus the Houston Astros, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET. The Astros lead 2-1 and would clinch with a victory.
The favored Twins (-123 on the moneyline) play at home against the Astros (+103). The total for this game is 8.5.
The betting facts in this article use the latest odds as of October 11, 2023 at 7:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Twins vs Astros Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | -123 | +103 | 8.5 |
Twins Betting Insights
- This season, the Twins have won 69 out of the 114 games, or 60.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Minnesota is 62-40 this season when entering a game favored by -123 or more on the moneyline.
- The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 55.2% chance of a victory for the Twins.
- Games involving Minnesota has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 84 of 167 chances this season.
- The Twins are 84-83-0 ATS in their 167 games with a spread this season.
Twins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 3.70 |
| K/9 | 11.4 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have been underdogs in 44 games this season and have come away with the win 29 times (65.9%) in those contests.
- This season, Houston has come away with a win 17 times in 29 chances when named as an underdog of at least +103 or longer on the moneyline.
- The Astros have an implied victory probability of 49.3% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
- Contests with Houston has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 87 of 165 chances this season.
- The Astros have an against the spread mark of 82-83-0 in 165 games with a line this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 2.73 |
| K/9 | 10.2 |
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Twins Probable Pitcher – Joe Ryan
- Ryan’s team is 13-16-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander’s last appearance was on Saturday, Sept. 30, when he threw five innings against the Colorado Rockies, giving up six earned runs while allowing eight hits.
- Ryan will look to finish five or more innings for the fourth start in a row.
- He has three appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 29 chances this season.
- Ryan’s team has been victorious in 56.5% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 13-10.
- Ryan’s team has a 16-13 record in his starts this season.
- In Ryan’s 29 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 19 times.
Twins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 70 | 65.1 | 68 | 3.86 | 23 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | 63 | 69.1 | 65 | 2.99 | 8 | 1 |
| Jorge López | 59 | 59 | 49 | 5.95 | 10 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | 59 | 62.1 | 84 | 2.45 | 1 | 27 |
| Caleb Thielbar | 36 | 30.2 | 36 | 3.23 | 14 | 0 |
Astros Probable Pitcher – Jose Urquidy
- Urquidy gets the start for the Astros, his 11th of the season. He is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 63 2/3 innings pitched.
- The righty last appeared on Saturday, Sept. 30 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, when he tossed six scoreless innings while giving up two hits.
- Urquidy has pitched five or more innings in a game five times this season heading into this game.
- He will attempt for his third straight outing without giving up an earned run.
- The Astros have a 2-2 record in Urquidy’s four starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Urquidy’s team is 5-5 over his 10 starts.
- Urquidy has had 10 starts that bookmakers set a total for this season, and four of those outings finished over the total.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 70 | 72 | 100 | 1.75 | 24 | 5 |
| Héctor Neris | 69 | 68.1 | 77 | 1.71 | 31 | 2 |
| Phil Maton | 67 | 66 | 74 | 3.00 | 10 | 1 |
| Rafael Montero | 67 | 67.1 | 79 | 5.08 | 10 | 1 |
| Ryan Pressly | 63 | 65.1 | 74 | 3.58 | 0 | 31 |
Twins Hitting Trends
- The Twins have hit at least two long balls in 83 games this season, and are 63-20 in those outings.
- Minnesota has gone 47-10 in its 57 games this season with at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has put up at least eight hits 98 times this season, and has a 74-24 record in those games.
- Minnesota is 81-14 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
- The Twins have drawn five or more walks in 60 games this season, and are 39-21 in those contests.
Astros Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 61 games this season and are 45-16 in those matchups.
- Houston has won 31 of its 41 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 84-31 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Houston has won 78 of its 94 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- In 50 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 40-10
Twins vs. Astros Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Twins (-123)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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