Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: NLDS Game 3 Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 11, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 10, 2023

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks hit the field in Game 3 of the NLDS, Wednesday at 9:07 PM ET, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks lead 2-0 and would sweep with a win.

The Diamondbacks are an underdog (+115 on the moneyline) when they host the Dodgers (-139). The game’s total is set at 9.5.

The betting facts in this article use the latest odds as of October 11, 2023 at 9:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Dodgers -139 +115 9.5

Dodgers Betting Insights

  • The Dodgers have been favorites in 139 games this season and won 87 (62.6%) of those contests.
  • This season Los Angeles has won 68 of its 106 games, or 64.2%, when favored by at least -139 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win from the Dodgers, based on the moneyline, is 58.2%.
  • Los Angeles and its opponents have hit the over in 88 of its 163 games with a total this season.
  • The Dodgers are 89-74-0 against the spread this season.

Dodgers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 4.4
HR 11
ERA 4.60
K/9 9.4

Diamondbacks Betting Insights

  • The Diamondbacks have won in 44, or 48.4%, of the 91 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • This year, Arizona has won 24 of 53 games when listed as at least +115 or worse on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Diamondbacks have a 46.5% chance of pulling out a win.
  • Arizona and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 73 of its 166 opportunities.
  • The Diamondbacks are 92-74-0 against the spread in their 166 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4.7
HR 12
ERA 2.53
K/9 9.2

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Dodgers Probable Pitcher – Lance Lynn

  • When Lynn starts, his team is 16-16-0 against the spread this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Saturday, Sept. 30, when he tossed six innings while giving up two earned runs on two hits in a matchup with the San Francisco Giants.
  • Lynn has four starts in a row of five innings or more.
  • He has three appearances with no earned runs allowed in 32 chances this season.
  • When Lynn starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 11-4.
  • Lynn’s team has won 17 of his 32 starts this season.
  • Games Lynn has started this season hit the over 22 times in 32 chances.

Dodgers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Brusdar Graterol 65 67.1 48 1.2 19 7
Evan Phillips 60 61.1 66 2.05 6 24
Caleb Ferguson 59 60.1 70 3.43 18 3
Ryan Brasier 57 59.2 56 3.02 11 2
Alex Vesia 55 49.2 64 4.35 10 1

Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Brandon Pfaadt

  • Pfaadt (3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 96 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 20th of the season.
  • In his most recent time out on Tuesday, Oct. 3 against the Milwaukee Brewers, the righty threw 2 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
  • Pfaadt enters this game with 12 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
  • In three of his 19 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
  • The Diamondbacks have a 7-6 record in Pfaadt’s 13 starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
  • Pfaadt’s team has a 9-11 record in his starts this season.
  • Pfaadt has had 20 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and five of those games hit the over.

Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Miguel Castro 72 64.2 60 4.31 13 7
Paul Sewald 65 60.2 80 3.12 0 34
Kyle Nelson 63 56 67 4.18 11 0
Kevin Ginkel 60 65.1 70 2.48 8 4
Joe Mantiply 31 39 28 4.62 1 0

Dodgers Hitting Trends

  • The Dodgers have a 58-20 record in games this season when they smash at least two home runs.
  • Los Angeles has gone 37-9 in its 46 games this season with five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has totaled eight or more hits in 107 games this season, and is 79-28 in those contests.
  • Los Angeles is 83-21 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
  • The Dodgers are 46-20 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Diamondbacks Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 50 games this season and are 36-14 in those matchups.
  • Arizona has won 25 of its 32 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
  • They have won 77 of the 111 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
  • In 90 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 71-19.
  • They have won 28 of their 53 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Dodgers (-139)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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