The Philadelphia Phillies host Game 3 of the NLDS versus the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday at 5:07 PM ET. The teams are knotted up 1-1.
The Braves are an underdog (+104 moneyline odds to win) when they take the field at the Phillies (-124). The contest has an over/under of 9.
The insights in what follows reference odds valid as of October 11, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Phillies vs Braves Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -124 | +104 | 9 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- This season, the Phillies have won 67 out of the 111 games, or 60.4%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Philadelphia has entered 86 games this season favored by -124 or more and is 57-29 in those contests.
- The implied probability of a win from the Phillies, based on the moneyline, is 55.4%.
- Philadelphia and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 76 of 166 opportunities.
- The Phillies are 77-89-0 ATS in their 166 games with a spread this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.6 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 3.27 |
| K/9 | 9.9 |
Braves Betting Insights
- The Braves have come away with seven wins in the 13 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
- Atlanta has a mark of 3-2 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +104 or worse on the moneyline.
- The Braves have an implied victory probability of 49% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Atlanta and its opponents have gone over in 93 of its 164 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- In 164 games with a line this season, the Braves have a mark of 84-80-0 against the spread.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 4.50 |
| K/9 | 8.0 |
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Phillies Probable Pitcher – Aaron Nola
- Nola’s team is 15-18-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander allowed three hits in seven scoreless innings pitched against the Miami Marlins on Thursday.
- Nola has pitched five or more innings in three straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- In 32 appearances this season, he has finished three without allowing an earned run.
- Nola’s team has a record of 16-7 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Nola’s team has a 20-13 record in his starts this season.
- Games started by Nola have a 19-11-3 record at hitting the over this season.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 71 | 69 | 94 | 3.26 | 7 | 23 |
| Gregory Soto | 68 | 60.1 | 65 | 4.62 | 24 | 3 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 57 | 50 | 48 | 3.78 | 14 | 2 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 53 | 52.1 | 69 | 2.41 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 49 | 52.2 | 60 | 2.56 | 22 | 0 |
Braves Probable Pitcher – Bryce Elder
- Elder (12-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 174 2/3 innings pitched) makes the start for the Braves, his 32nd of the season.
- His most recent time out was on Tuesday, Sept. 26 against the Chicago Cubs, when the righty went 3 2/3 innings, surrendering five earned runs while giving up seven hits.
- Elder enters the game with 26 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
- In six of his 31 total appearances this season he has not allowed an earned run.
- The Braves have a 3-2 record in Elder’s five starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
- Elder’s team is 21-10 in his 31 starts.
- Elder’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 15 of 31 games.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 69 | 64.2 | 82 | 3.76 | 21 | 10 |
| Pierce Johnson | 66 | 62.2 | 90 | 4.02 | 12 | 13 |
| Brad Hand | 60 | 53.2 | 59 | 5.53 | 5 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | 59 | 60.1 | 80 | 3.28 | 9 | 5 |
| Joe Jiménez | 58 | 56.1 | 73 | 3.04 | 13 | 0 |
Phillies Hitting Trends
- The Phillies have a 48-16 record this season in games when they hit two or more homers.
- Philadelphia has racked up five or more extra-base hits in 47 games this season, and has gone 37-10 in those outings.
- The team has strung together eight or more hits in 108 games this season, and is 70-38 in those contests.
- Philadelphia is 70-17 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Phillies have drawn at least five walks in 60 games this season, and are 39-21 in those contests.
Braves Hitting Trends
- They have won 69 of the 92 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
- Atlanta has won 40 of its 47 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have won 81 of the 116 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
- Atlanta has a 86-24 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 30-12 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Phillies (-124)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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