The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros take the field for Game 3 of the ALDS at Target Field, on Tuesday at 4:07 PM ET, with the series knotted up at 1-1.
The Twins are favored (-130 moneyline odds) when they host the Astros (+106). The matchup has an over/under of 8 total runs.
The betting trends in this article use the latest odds as of October 10, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Twins vs Astros Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | -130 | +106 | 8 |
Twins Betting Insights
- The Twins have won 69, or 61.1%, of the 113 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- Minnesota has a record of 50-36 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -130 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Twins, based on the moneyline, is 56.5%.
- Games involving Minnesota has gone over the total set by bookmakers in 83 of 166 chances this season.
- The Twins are 84-82-0 against the spread this season.
Twins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.6 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 3.20 |
| K/9 | 11.7 |
Astros Betting Insights
- The Astros have been underdogs in 43 games this season and have come away with the win 28 times (65.1%) in those contests.
- This season, Houston has come away with a win 15 times in 26 chances when named as an underdog of at least +106 or longer on the moneyline.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Astros have a 48.5% chance of pulling out a win.
- Houston’s games have gone over the total in 86 of its 164 opportunities.
- The Astros are 81-83-0 against the spread in their 164 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.1 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 2.83 |
| K/9 | 10 |
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Twins Probable Pitcher – Sonny Gray
- When Gray starts, his team is 14-19-0 against the spread this season.
- The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed five innings without allowing a run on five hits in a matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays.
- In 32 starts this season, Gray has lasted five or more innings 28 times, with an average of 5.8 innings per appearance.
- In 32 appearances this season, he has finished seven without allowing an earned run.
- When Gray starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 12-12.
- Gray’s team is 15-18 when he starts this season.
- In games Gray has started this season, the teams are 13-18-2 at hitting the over.
Twins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 70 | 65.1 | 68 | 3.86 | 23 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | 63 | 69.1 | 65 | 2.99 | 8 | 1 |
| Jorge López | 59 | 59 | 49 | 5.95 | 10 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | 59 | 62.1 | 84 | 2.45 | 1 | 27 |
| Caleb Thielbar | 36 | 30.2 | 36 | 3.23 | 14 | 0 |
Astros Probable Pitcher – Cristian Javier
- Javier makes the start for the Astros, his 32nd of the season. He is 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 162 2/3 innings pitched.
- His last time out came on Sunday, Oct. 1 against the Arizona Diamondbacks, when the righty threw six scoreless innings while allowing three hits.
- Javier has pitched five or more innings in a game 23 times this season heading into this matchup.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in two of his 31 outings this season.
- The Astros are 9-2 in Javier’s 11 starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Javier’s team has put together a 21-10 record in his 31 starts.
- Javier has started 31 contests with a total set by oddsmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 19 of them.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 70 | 72 | 100 | 1.75 | 24 | 5 |
| Héctor Neris | 69 | 68.1 | 77 | 1.71 | 31 | 2 |
| Phil Maton | 67 | 66 | 74 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| Rafael Montero | 67 | 67.1 | 79 | 5.08 | 10 | 1 |
| Ryan Pressly | 63 | 65.1 | 74 | 3.58 | 0 | 31 |
Twins Hitting Trends
- The Twins are 63-20 this season in games when they hit at least two home runs.
- Minnesota is 47-10 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
- The team is 74-24 in the games this season it has strung together eight or more hits.
- Minnesota is 81-14 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Twins have drawn five or more walks in 59 games this season, and are 39-20 in those contests.
Astros Hitting Trends
- They are 44-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Houston has won 30 of its 40 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 83-31 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Houston has a 77-16 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have won 40 of their 50 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Twins vs. Astros Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Twins (-130)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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