The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins play in the second game of the ALDS at Minute Maid Park, Sunday at 8:03 PM ET. The Astros lead the series 1-0.
The Astros are a home favorite (-137) against the Twins (+114). The over/under in the game is 7.5 total runs.
The insights in the following article are based off odds valid as of October 8, 2023 at 7:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Astros vs Twins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | -137 | +114 | 7.5 |
Astros Betting Insights
- This season, the Astros have won 63 out of the 119 games, or 52.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
- This season Houston has won 45 of its 84 games, or 53.6%, when favored by at least -137 on the moneyline.
- The Astros have a 57.8% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- So far this season, Houston and its opponents have hit the over in 85 of 163 games with a total.
- The Astros are 81-82-0 ATS in their 163 games with a spread this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.4 |
| HR | 14 |
| ERA | 2.83 |
| K/9 | 10.3 |
Twins Betting Insights
- The Twins have won in 20, or 39.2%, of the 51 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- This season, Minnesota has been victorious 10 times in 27 chances when named as an underdog of at least +114 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Twins have a 46.7% chance of walking away with the win.
- Minnesota’s games have gone over the total in 82 of its 165 opportunities.
- The Twins are 83-82-0 against the spread in their 165 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Twins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.9 |
| HR | 18 |
| ERA | 3.30 |
| K/9 | 12.5 |
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Astros Probable Pitcher – Framber Valdez
- When Valdez starts, his team is 14-17-0 against the spread this season.
- The left-hander gave up three earned runs and allowed five hits in four innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners on Thursday, Sept. 28.
- Valdez has 28 starts of five or more innings this season in 31 chances. He averages 6.4 innings per outing.
- In 31 appearances this season, he has finished six without allowing an earned run.
- When Valdez starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 15-14.
- Valdez’s team has a 17-14 record in his starts this season.
- In games Valdez has started this season, the teams are 17-14-0 at hitting the over.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 70 | 72 | 100 | 1.75 | 24 | 5 |
| Héctor Neris | 69 | 68.1 | 77 | 1.71 | 31 | 2 |
| Phil Maton | 67 | 66 | 74 | 3.00 | 10 | 1 |
| Rafael Montero | 67 | 67.1 | 79 | 5.08 | 10 | 1 |
| Ryan Pressly | 63 | 65.1 | 74 | 3.58 | 0 | 31 |
Twins Probable Pitcher – Pablo Lopez
- Lopez makes the start for the Twins, his 33rd of the season. He is 11-8 with a 3.71 ERA and 234 strikeouts in 194 2/3 innings pitched.
- The right-hander’s most recent appearance was on Tuesday against the Toronto Blue Jays, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up five hits.
- Lopez will try to pick up his 30th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 6.1 innings per appearance.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in six of his 32 appearances this season.
- The Twins have a 1-5 record in Lopez’s six starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Lopez’s team has won 20 of his 32 starts.
- Lopez has had 33 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in 17 of those games.
Twins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 70 | 65.1 | 68 | 3.72 | 23 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | 63 | 69.1 | 65 | 2.99 | 8 | 1 |
| Jorge López | 59 | 59 | 49 | 5.95 | 10 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | 59 | 62.1 | 84 | 2.45 | 1 | 27 |
| Caleb Thielbar | 36 | 30.2 | 36 | 3.23 | 14 | 0 |
Astros Hitting Trends
- The Astros are 44-16 this season in games when they hit at least two bombs.
- Houston is 30-10 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
- The team has totaled eight or more hits 113 times this season, and has an 83-30 record in those games.
- Houston is 77-16 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
- The Astros have drawn at least five walks in 50 games this season, and are 40-10 in those contests.
Twins Hitting Trends
- They are 63-20 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 57 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 47-10.
- In 97 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 73-24.
- Minnesota has a 80-14 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
- They have a 39-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Astros vs. Twins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Astros (-137)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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