The Atlanta Braves square off against the Philadelphia Phillies to open the NLDS at Truist Park, Saturday at 6:07 PM ET.
The Phillies (+171 underdog on the moneyline) visit the Braves (-208). The total for this game is 8.5.
The betting trends in what follows use the latest odds as of October 7, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Braves vs Phillies Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | -208 | +171 | 8.5 |
Braves Betting Insights
- This season, the Braves have won 96 out of the 148 games, or 64.9%, in which they’ve been favored.
- This season Atlanta has won 40 of its 56 games, or 71.4%, when favored by at least -208 on the moneyline.
- The sportsbooks’ moneyline implies a 67.5% chance of a victory for the Braves.
- Atlanta and its opponents have hit the over in 92 of its 162 games with a total this season.
- The Braves have an ATS record of 84-78-0 in 162 games with a spread this season.
Braves Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 6.7 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 5.00 |
| K/9 | 7.7 |
Phillies Betting Insights
- The Phillies have been chosen as underdogs in 51 games this year and have walked away with the win 24 times (47.1%) in those games.
- Philadelphia has been listed as an underdog of +171 or more on two occasions this season and lost both games.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Phillies have a 36.9% chance of walking away with the win.
- Contests with Philadelphia has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 75 of 164 chances this season.
- The Phillies are 75-89-0 against the spread in their 164 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Phillies Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.1 |
| HR | 13 |
| ERA | 3.24 |
| K/9 | 10.0 |
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Braves Probable Pitcher – Spencer Strider
- Strider’s team is 20-12-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
- The right-hander gave up three earned runs in five innings pitched on Saturday in his last outing, a matchup with the Washington Nationals.
- Strider has four starts in a row of five innings or more.
- He has finished six appearances without allowing an earned run in 32 chances this season.
- Strider’s team has won 81.2% of his starts when they are favored on the moneyline (26-6).
- Strider’s team is 26-6 when he starts this season.
- Games started by Strider have a 19-13-0 record at hitting the over this season.
Braves Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Minter | 69 | 64.2 | 82 | 3.76 | 21 | 10 |
| Pierce Johnson | 66 | 62.2 | 90 | 4.45 | 12 | 13 |
| Brad Hand | 60 | 53.2 | 59 | 5.53 | 5 | 1 |
| Kirby Yates | 59 | 60.1 | 80 | 3.28 | 9 | 5 |
| Joe Jiménez | 58 | 56.1 | 73 | 3.04 | 13 | 0 |
Phillies Probable Pitcher – Ranger Suarez
- Suarez gets the start for the Phillies, his 23rd of the season. He is 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA and 119 strikeouts in 125 2/3 innings pitched.
- The lefty’s most recent time out was on Wednesday, Sept. 27 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he went 4 2/3 innings, surrendering six earned runs while giving up nine hits.
- Suarez will look to collect his 19th matchup of five or more innings pitched this season. He averages 5.7 innings per appearance.
- In one of his 22 total appearances this season he has not surrendered an earned run.
- The Phillies are 4-3 in Suarez’s seven starts this season that they were the moneyline underdog.
- Over Suarez’s 22 starts, his team is 13-9.
- Suarez has had 22 starts with a total this season, and the teams combined to hit the over in nine of those outings.
Phillies Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Kimbrel | 71 | 69 | 94 | 3.26 | 7 | 23 |
| Gregory Soto | 68 | 60.1 | 65 | 4.62 | 24 | 3 |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 57 | 50 | 48 | 3.78 | 14 | 2 |
| Jeff Hoffman | 53 | 52.1 | 69 | 2.41 | 11 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 49 | 52.2 | 60 | 2.56 | 22 | 0 |
Braves Hitting Trends
- The Braves have racked up two or more long balls in 90 games this season, and are 67-23 in those contests.
- Atlanta is 39-7 in games this season when it has put up at least five extra-base hits.
- The club has notched at least eight hits in 115 games this season, and is 80-35 in those contests.
- Atlanta is 84-24 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Braves have drawn five or more walks in 42 games this season, and are 30-12 in those contests.
Phillies Hitting Trends
- They are 47-16 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- In 46 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 36-10.
- In 106 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 69-37.
- In 86 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 69-17.
- They have a 38-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Braves vs. Phillies Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Braves (-208)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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