The NLDS begins with a battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, Saturday at 9:20 PM ET, at Dodger Stadium.
The favored Dodgers (-199 moneyline odds to win) play at home against the Diamondbacks (+166). The matchup has an over/under set at 8.5 total runs.
The insights in the article below are based off odds valid as of October 7, 2023 at 9:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -199 | +166 | 8.5 |
Dodgers Betting Insights
- The Dodgers have won 87, or 63.5%, of the 137 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- This season Los Angeles has won 27 of its 39 games, or 69.2%, when favored by at least -199 on the moneyline.
- The implied probability of a win from the Dodgers, based on the moneyline, is 66.6%.
- Games involving Los Angeles has gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 87 of 161 chances this season.
- The Dodgers have an ATS record of 89-72-0 in 161 games with a spread this season.
Dodgers Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.8 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 3.58 |
| K/9 | 9.6 |
Diamondbacks Betting Insights
- The Diamondbacks have been victorious in 42, or 47.2%, of the 89 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
- Arizona has a win-loss record of 4-5 when favored by +166 or worse by bookmakers this year.
- The Diamondbacks have an implied victory probability of 37.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Arizona and its opponents have gone over in 72 of its 164 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
- The Diamondbacks have posted a record of 90-74-0 against the spread this season.
Diamondbacks Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 |
| HR | 7 |
| ERA | 2.86 |
| K/9 | 9.6 |
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Dodgers Probable Pitcher – Clayton Kershaw
- Kershaw’s team is 14-10-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The left-hander gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings pitched on Sunday, Oct. 1 in his last outing, a matchup with the San Francisco Giants.
- Kershaw has pitched five or more innings in two straight games and will look to extend that streak.
- In 24 appearances this season, he has finished seven without allowing an earned run.
- Kershaw’s team is 16-7 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- Kershaw’s team is 17-7 when he starts this season.
- In Kershaw’s 24 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over 10 times.
Dodgers Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brusdar Graterol | 65 | 67.1 | 48 | 1.2 | 19 | 7 |
| Evan Phillips | 60 | 61.1 | 66 | 2.35 | 6 | 24 |
| Caleb Ferguson | 59 | 60.1 | 70 | 3.73 | 18 | 3 |
| Ryan Brasier | 57 | 59.2 | 56 | 3.02 | 11 | 2 |
| Alex Vesia | 55 | 49.2 | 64 | 4.35 | 10 | 1 |
Diamondbacks Probable Pitcher – Merrill Kelly
- Kelly makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 31st of the season. He is 12-8 with a 3.29 ERA and 187 strikeouts in 177 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last appearance on Sunday, Oct. 1 against the Houston Astros, the righty went seven innings, allowing one earned run while surrendering five hits.
- Kelly will try to pitch five or more innings for his 30th straight start. He’s averaging 5.9 innings per outing.
- He has had three appearances this season that he held his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Diamondbacks have been the moneyline underdog in 16 of Kelly’s starts this season, and they went 7-9 in those matchups.
- Kelly’s team has a 16-14 record in his 30 starts.
- Kelly’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 11 of 30 games.
Diamondbacks Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Castro | 72 | 64.2 | 60 | 4.31 | 13 | 7 |
| Paul Sewald | 65 | 60.2 | 80 | 3.12 | 0 | 34 |
| Kevin Ginkel | 60 | 65.1 | 70 | 2.48 | 8 | 4 |
| Joe Mantiply | 31 | 39 | 28 | 4.62 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Thompson | 29 | 30.2 | 21 | 3.82 | 8 | 1 |
Dodgers Hitting Trends
- The Dodgers are 58-20 this season in games when they send out at least two homers.
- Los Angeles has collected five or more extra-base hits in 46 games this season, and has gone 37-9 in those contests.
- The team has strung together eight or more hits 107 times this season, and has a 79-28 record in those games.
- Los Angeles is 83-21 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Dodgers have drawn five or more walks in 66 games this season, and are 46-20 in those contests.
Diamondbacks Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 49 games this season and are 35-14 in those matchups.
- Arizona has won 23 of its 30 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 76-34 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 89 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 70-19.
- In 52 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 27-25
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Dodgers (-199)
Over/Under Pick: Under (8.5)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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