The Houston Astros will host the Minnesota Twins in the opening game of the ALDS at 4:45 PM ET on Saturday.
The Astros are a home favorite (-150) against the Twins (+124). The over/under for this game is 8.
The betting insights in this article use the latest odds as of October 7, 2023 at 5:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Astros vs Twins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | -150 | +124 | 8 |
Astros Betting Insights
- This season, the Astros have won 62 out of the 118 games, or 52.5%, in which they’ve been favored.
- Houston has a record of 36-28 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -150 on the moneyline.
- The Astros have a 60% chance to win this game based on the implied probability of the moneyline.
- Houston and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 84 of 162 opportunities.
- The Astros have an ATS record of 80-82-0 in 162 games with a spread this season.
Astros Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 4.0 |
| HR | 11 |
| ERA | 2.53 |
| K/9 | 10.3 |
Twins Betting Insights
- The Twins have won in 20, or 40%, of the 50 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
- Minnesota has a win-loss record of 8-10 when favored by +124 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
- The Twins have an implied victory probability of 44.6% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
- Minnesota and its opponents have hit the over in 81 of its 164 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- In 164 games with a line this season, the Twins have a mark of 83-81-0 against the spread.
Twins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-3 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.5 |
| HR | 16 |
| ERA | 2.77 |
| K/9 | 12.7 |
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Astros Probable Pitcher – Justin Verlander
- Verlander’s team is 12-15-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander allowed two hits in five scoreless innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday.
- Verlander will look to finish five or more innings for the 21st start in a row.
- He has finished six appearances without allowing an earned run in 27 chances this season.
- Verlander’s team has a record of 12-9 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
- Verlander’s team is 15-12 when he starts this season.
- Games started by Verlander have an 11-14-2 record at hitting the over this season.
Astros Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 70 | 72 | 100 | 1.75 | 24 | 5 |
| Héctor Neris | 69 | 68.1 | 77 | 1.71 | 31 | 2 |
| Phil Maton | 67 | 66 | 74 | 3.00 | 10 | 1 |
| Rafael Montero | 67 | 67.1 | 79 | 5.08 | 10 | 1 |
| Kendall Graveman | 67 | 66.1 | 66 | 3.12 | 13 | 8 |
Twins Probable Pitcher – Bailey Ober
- Ober (8-6) gets the starting nod for the Twins in his 27th start of the season. He has a 3.43 ERA in 144 1/3 innings pitched, with 146 strikeouts.
- His last appearance came on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, when the right-hander went 6 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while giving up two hits.
- Ober has 24 starts this season where he pitched five or more innings.
- He has had four appearances this season that he kept his opponents to zero earned runs.
- The Twins have a 6-2 record in Ober’s eight starts this season when they were the moneyline underdog.
- Ober’s team has a 16-10 record in his 26 starts.
- Ober’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 10 of 26 games.
Twins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | 70 | 65.1 | 68 | 3.72 | 23 | 4 |
| Emilio Pagán | 63 | 69.1 | 65 | 2.99 | 8 | 1 |
| Jorge López | 59 | 59 | 49 | 5.95 | 10 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | 59 | 62.1 | 84 | 2.45 | 1 | 27 |
| Caleb Thielbar | 36 | 30.2 | 36 | 3.23 | 14 | 0 |
Astros Hitting Trends
- The Astros have hit at least two round-trippers in 59 games this season, and are 43-16 in those outings.
- Houston has had five or more extra-base hits in 40 games this season, and has gone 30-10 in those contests.
- The club has notched at least eight hits 112 times this season, and has an 82-30 record in those games.
- Houston is 76-16 in games this season when it scored five or more runs.
- The Astros have drawn at least five walks in 50 games this season, and are 40-10 in those contests.
Twins Hitting Trends
- They are 63-19 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
- Minnesota has won 47 of its 56 games with five or more extra-base hits this season.
- They have a record of 73-23 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- Minnesota has won 80 of its 94 games this season in which it scored more than four runs.
- They have a 39-20 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.
Astros vs. Twins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Astros (-150)
Over/Under Pick: Over (8)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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