Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction: AL Wild Card Game 1 Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 3, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 1, 2023

The Minnesota Twins will host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of the AL Wild Card Series at 4:38 PM ET on Tuesday.

The Twins are favored at home (-123) against the Blue Jays (+103). The contest has an over/under of 7.5.

The betting facts in the following article use the latest odds as of October 3, 2023 at 3:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Twins vs Blue Jays Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Twins -123 +103 7.5

Twins Betting Insights

  • The Twins have entered the game as favorites 111 times this season and won 67, or 60.4%, of those games.
  • Minnesota has a record of 61-39, a 61% win rate, when favored by -123 or more by oddsmakers this season.
  • Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Twins have a 55.2% chance to win.
  • Minnesota and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 81 of 162 opportunities.
  • The Twins have an ATS record of 81-81-0 in 162 games with a spread this season.

Twins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 7-3
Runs Per Game 6.3
HR 16
ERA 3.56
K/9 12.6

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • The Blue Jays have come away with 23 wins in the 42 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Toronto has a mark of 11-10 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +103 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Blue Jays have a 49.3% chance of walking away with the win.
  • Toronto and its opponents have gone over in 71 of its 162 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Blue Jays have posted a record of 74-88-0 against the spread this season.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 4-6
Runs Per Game 5.4
HR 13
ERA 4.96
K/9 10

If you’re looking for a place to bet on the Twins or Blue Jays, look no further than DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can use our link to get the best offer for new depositors!

Twins Probable Pitcher – Pablo Lopez

  • Lopez’s team is 15-17-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed 4 1/3 innings while giving up three earned runs on five hits in a matchup with the Oakland Athletics.
  • In 32 starts this season, Lopez has lasted five or more innings 29 times, with an average of 6.1 innings per appearance.
  • He has six appearances with no earned runs allowed in 32 chances this season.
  • Lopez’s team has a record of 18-8 this season when he starts and they are the favorite on the moneyline.
  • Lopez’s team has won 19 of his 32 starts.
  • Games started by Lopez have a 17-13-2 record at hitting the over this season.

Twins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Griffin Jax 70 65.1 68 3.72 23 4
Emilio Pagán 63 69.1 65 2.99 8 1
Jorge López 59 59 49 5.95 10 3
Jhoan Duran 59 62.1 84 2.45 1 27
Caleb Thielbar 36 30.2 36 3.23 14 0

Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Kevin Gausman

  • Gausman makes the start for the Blue Jays, his 32nd of the season. He is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA and 237 strikeouts in 185 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Tuesday against the New York Yankees, the righty went seven scoreless innings while surrendering three hits.
  • Gausman is seeking his third straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages six innings per start.
  • He is trying to make his third straight outing with no earned runs allowed.
  • The Blue Jays were named the moneyline underdog for one Gausman start this season — they lost.
  • Gausman’s team has won 16 of his 31 starts.
  • Gausman has started 31 contests with a total set by bookmakers this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in 13 of them.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yimi Garcia 72 66 79 4.09 19 3
Tim Mayza 69 53.1 53 1.52 22 1
Erik Swanson 68 66.2 75 2.97 29 4
Jordan Hicks 64 65.2 81 3.29 13 12
Génesis Cabrera 59 55.2 58 4.53 11 0

Twins Hitting Trends

  • The Twins are 62-19 this season in games when they hit two or more home runs.
  • Minnesota is 47-9 in games this season when it has put up five or more extra-base hits.
  • The team has notched at least eight hits in 96 games this season, and is 73-23 in those contests.
  • Minnesota is 80-14 in games this season when it scored at least five runs.
  • The Twins have drawn at least five walks in 57 games this season, and are 37-20 in those contests.

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • They are 35-14 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
  • In 36 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 26-10.
  • They have a record of 78-37 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • Toronto has a 65-18 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • In 46 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 31-15

Twins vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Twins (-123)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

Ready to bet? Check out our great offer for new users at DraftKings, no promo code required!

Odds subject to change. Not all offers available in all areas. See DraftKings for offer details, terms and conditions. Must be 21+ to gamble, please wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact 1-800-GAMBLER.

PlayPicks Staff Avatar
Written by
PlayPicks Staff

PlayPicks staff has years of sports betting and DFS knowledge and we share all of that with you for free daily.

View all posts by PlayPicks Staff
Privacy Policy