Rays vs. Rangers Prediction: AL Wild Card Game 1 Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 3, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 1, 2023

The AL Wild Card Series opens with a clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 3:08 PM ET, at Tropicana Field.

The Rays are favored (-154 on the moneyline) when they take the field at home against the Rangers (+130). The matchup has an over/under of 7.5 total runs.

The betting insights in what follows reflect odds as of October 3, 2023 at 3:16 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Rays vs Rangers Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Rays -154 +130 7.5

Rays Betting Insights

  • The Rays have been favorites in 131 games this season and won 86 (65.6%) of those contests.
  • Tampa Bay has entered 74 games this season favored by -154 or more and is 54-20 in those contests.
  • The oddsmakers’ moneyline implies a 60.6% chance of a victory for the Rays.
  • Tampa Bay and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 89 of 162 opportunities.
  • The Rays have an ATS record of 90-72-0 in 162 games with a spread this season.

Rays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.9
HR 13
ERA 5.60
K/9 10.9

Rangers Betting Insights

  • The Rangers have come away with 25 wins in the 52 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
  • Texas has a mark of 6-10 in contests where oddsmakers favor it by +130 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The Rangers have an implied victory probability of 43.5% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.
  • Texas and its opponents have gone over in 84 of its 162 games with a total set by sportsbooks this season.
  • The Rangers have an against the spread record of 86-76-0 in 162 games with a line this season.

Rangers Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 4
HR 18
ERA 3.77
K/9 9

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Rays Probable Pitcher – Tyler Glasnow

  • Glasnow’s team is 14-7-0 against the spread in his starts this season.
  • The right-hander last pitched on Wednesday, when he allowed two hits in five scoreless innings against the Boston Red Sox.
  • Glasnow will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
  • In 21 appearances this season, he has finished two without allowing an earned run.
  • Glasnow’s team has been victorious in 57.1% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 12-9.
  • Glasnow’s team has won 12 of his 21 starts.
  • Games Glasnow has started this season hit the over 10 times in 21 chances.

Rays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Colin Poche 65 60.2 61 2.23 22 1
Jake Diekman 63 56.2 64 3.34 8 0
Robert Stephenson 59 52.1 77 3.1 15 1
Kevin Kelly 55 67 56 3.22 12 2
Pete Fairbanks 49 45.1 68 2.58 2 25

Rangers Probable Pitcher – Jordan Montgomery

  • Montgomery (10-11) gets the starting nod for the Rangers in his 33rd start of the season. He has a 3.20 ERA in 188 2/3 innings pitched, with 166 strikeouts.
  • His last appearance was on Friday against the Seattle Mariners, when the left-hander tossed six innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing five hits.
  • Montgomery will look to last five or more innings for his sixth straight appearance. He’s averaging 5.9 frames per outing.
  • He has had seven appearances this season in which he did not surrender an earned run.
  • The Rangers have a 2-4 record in Montgomery’s six starts this season when they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Montgomery’s team is 11-21 in his 32 starts.
  • Montgomery’s starts with a set total this season have hit the over in 14 of 32 games.

Rangers Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Chris Stratton 63 82.2 81 4.03 8 1
Aroldis Chapman 59 58.1 103 3.09 14 6
Will Smith 59 57.1 55 4.4 8 22
José Leclerc 56 57 67 2.68 8 4
Brock Burke 52 59.2 52 4.37 12 0

Rays Hitting Trends

  • The Rays have put up at least two round-trippers in 69 games this season, and are 52-17 in those contests.
  • Tampa Bay has racked up at least five extra-base hits in 40 games this season, and has gone 37-3 in those contests.
  • The team is 76-32 in the games this season it has racked up eight or more hits.
  • Tampa Bay has a 76-21 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Rays have gone 30-9 over the 39 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Rangers Hitting Trends

  • They have won 55 of the 76 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • Texas has gone 37-14 this season when collecting five or more extra-base hits as a team.
  • They have a record of 82-40 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 102 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 78-24.
  • In 58 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 37-21

Rays vs. Rangers Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Rays (-154)
Over/Under Pick: Over (7.5)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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