Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 1, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 1, 2023

Yandy Diaz leads the Tampa Bay Rays (98-63) into a matchup with Bo Bichette and the Toronto Blue Jays (89-72) at Rogers Centre, on Sunday at 3:07 PM ET. Diaz is at .330, the fourth-best average in the league, and Bichette ranks eighth at .305.

An expected close contest features the Rays (-111 on the moneyline) against the Blue Jays (-109). The total for the game is 9 total runs.

The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of October 1, 2023 at 3:12 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Rays vs Blue Jays Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Rays -111 -109 9

Rays Betting Insights

  • This season, the Rays have been favored 130 times and won 85, or 65.4%, of those games.
  • Tampa Bay has a record of 85-45 in games when sportsbooks favor them by at least -111 on the moneyline.
  • The bookmakers’ moneyline implies a 52.6% chance of a victory for the Rays.
  • Tampa Bay and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 88 of 161 opportunities.
  • In 161 games with a spread this season, the Rays are 89-72-0 ATS.

Rays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 5.3
HR 11
ERA 5.10
K/9 11.1

Blue Jays Betting Insights

  • The Blue Jays have won in 23, or 56.1%, of the 41 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year.
  • Toronto has a win-loss record of 23-18 when favored by -109 or worse by sportsbooks this year.
  • The Blue Jays have an implied victory probability of 52.2% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.
  • Contests with Toronto has gone over the total set by sportsbooks in 70 of 161 chances this season.
  • In 161 games with a line this season, the Blue Jays have a mark of 74-87-0 against the spread.

Blue Jays Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 5.2
HR 12
ERA 3.84
K/9 10.5

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Rays Probable Pitcher – Taj Bradley

  • Bradley and his team have a record of 9-12-0 against the spread when he starts.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance came in relief on Friday when he threw one inning out of the bullpen against the Toronto Blue Jays, giving up one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • Bradley has 14 starts of five or more innings this season in 21 chances. He averages 4.7 innings per outing.
  • He has made 22 appearances and finished two of them without allowing an earned run.
  • When Bradley starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 9-6.
  • Bradley’s team has won 10 of his 21 starts.
  • Games started by Bradley have a 12-9-0 record at hitting the over this season.

Rays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Colin Poche 65 60.2 61 2.23 22 1
Jake Diekman 63 56.2 64 3.34 8 0
Robert Stephenson 59 52.1 77 3.1 15 1
Kevin Kelly 54 65.1 53 3.17 12 2
Pete Fairbanks 49 45.1 68 2.58 2 25

Blue Jays Probable Pitcher – Kevin Gausman

  • The Blue Jays are sending Gausman (12-9) out to make his 32nd start of the season. He is 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA and 237 strikeouts over 185 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his most recent time out on Tuesday, the righty went seven scoreless innings against the New York Yankees while surrendering three hits.
  • Gausman is aiming for his third straight outing lasting five or more innings. He averages six innings per start.
  • He will attempt for his third straight appearance without surrendering an earned run.
  • The Blue Jays were the moneyline underdog for one Gausman start this season — they lost.
  • Gausman’s team is 16-15 in his 31 starts.
  • Gausman’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 13 of 31 contests.

Blue Jays Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Yimi Garcia 72 66 79 4.09 19 3
Tim Mayza 68 52.1 51 1.38 22 1
Erik Swanson 67 65.2 74 3.02 29 4
Jordan Hicks 64 65.2 81 3.29 13 12
Jordan Romano 58 59 72 2.9 2 36

Rays Hitting Trends

  • The Rays have a 51-17 record in games this season when they belt two or more home runs.
  • Tampa Bay has had at least five extra-base hits in 39 games this season, and has gone 36-3 in those contests.
  • The club is 75-32 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • Tampa Bay is 75-21 in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Rays have gone 30-9 in the 39 games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Blue Jays Hitting Trends

  • They have won 35 of the 49 games this season in which they hit two or more home runs.
  • In 35 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 26-9.
  • In 114 games this season with eight or more hits, they have a record of 78-36.
  • Toronto has a 65-17 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
  • They have a 31-15 record this season when drawing five or more walks in a game.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Blue Jays (-109)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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