The Miami Marlins (84-76) will try to sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates (75-86) at PNC Park on Sunday, at 3:05 PM ET.
The favored Pirates (-135 moneyline odds to win) play at home against the Marlins (+114). The over/under for the game is set at 9 total runs.
The betting trends in what follows use the latest odds as of October 1, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!
Pirates vs Marlins Betting Lines
| Favorite | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | -135 | +114 | 9 |
Pirates Betting Insights
- The Pirates have won 19, or 61.3%, of the 31 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
- This season Pittsburgh has won 11 of its 18 games, or 61.1%, when favored by at least -135 on the moneyline.
- Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 57.4% chance to win.
- So far this season, Pittsburgh and its opponents have hit the over in 86 of 161 games with a total.
- The Pirates are 83-78-0 ATS in their 161 games with a spread this season.
Pirates Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 5-5 |
| Runs Per Game | 6 |
| HR | 12 |
| ERA | 5.73 |
| K/9 | 8.9 |
Marlins Betting Insights
- The Marlins have been underdogs in 86 games this season and have come away with the win 41 times (47.7%) in those contests.
- This year, Miami has won 23 of 50 games when listed as at least +114 or worse on the moneyline.
- The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 46.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
- Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 75 of its 160 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
- The Marlins are 73-87-0 against the spread in their 160 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.
Marlins Last 10 Games Trend
| Stat | Avg/Total |
|---|---|
| Record | 6-4 |
| Runs Per Game | 3.7 |
| HR | 9 |
| ERA | 4.96 |
| K/9 | 9.2 |
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Pirates Probable Pitcher – Andre Jackson
- Jackson’s team is 3-3-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
- The right-hander’s last appearance came in relief on Sunday, Sept. 24 when he threw 1 1/3 innings out of the bullpen against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up one earned run while allowing two hits.
- Jackson has made two starts of five or more innings in six chances this season, and averages 3.2 frames when he pitches.
- He has six appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 18 chances this season.
- Jackson’s team is 1-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
- In games Jackson has started, his team is 2-4.
- In games Jackson has started this season, the teams are 3-3-0 at hitting the over.
Pirates Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 64 | 66.1 | 78 | 2.04 | 0 | 38 |
| Dauri Moreta | 53 | 57 | 73 | 3.79 | 5 | 1 |
| Jose Hernandez | 49 | 50.2 | 62 | 4.97 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Borucki | 36 | 40.1 | 33 | 2.45 | 9 | 0 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 34 | 36 | 34 | 2.25 | 10 | 1 |
Marlins Probable Pitcher – Braxton Garrett
- The Marlins are sending Garrett (9-7) to the mound for his 30th start of the season as he goes for his 10th win. He is 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 156 strikeouts through 159 2/3 innings pitched.
- In his last outing on Wednesday against the New York Mets, the lefty threw four innings, giving up four earned runs while surrendering three hits.
- Garrett enters the matchup with 23 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
- He has held his opponents without an earned run in seven of his 31 outings this season.
- The Marlins have been the moneyline underdog in 13 of Garrett’s starts this season, and they went 8-5 in those games.
- In Garrett’s 29 starts, his team is 20-9.
- Garrett’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 14 of 29 contests.
Marlins Relief Pitchers
| Name | Relief App. | IP | Ks | ERA | Holds | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Scott | 69 | 78 | 104 | 2.31 | 24 | 12 |
| David Robertson | 62 | 65.1 | 78 | 3.03 | 10 | 19 |
| Andrew Nardi | 59 | 56.2 | 72 | 2.7 | 17 | 3 |
| Dylan Floro | 59 | 56.2 | 58 | 4.76 | 9 | 7 |
| Steven Okert | 58 | 58.2 | 73 | 4.45 | 12 | 0 |
Pirates Hitting Trends
- The Pirates have racked up at least two homers in 40 games this season, and are 30-10 in those contests.
- Pittsburgh has put up five or more extra-base hits in 32 games this season, and has gone 26-6 in those outings.
- The club is 55-26 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
- Pittsburgh has a 48-13 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
- The Pirates are 23-22 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.
Marlins Hitting Trends
- They’ve hit two or more homers in 50 games this season and are 28-22 in those matchups.
- In 31 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 28-3.
- They have a record of 69-47 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
- In 72 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 58-14.
- They have won 24 of their 37 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.
Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction
Moneyline Pick: Pirates (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.
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