Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction: MLB Betting Lines, Stats and Picks – October 1, 2023

Written By PlayPicks Staff on October 1, 2023

The Miami Marlins (84-76) will try to sweep the Pittsburgh Pirates (75-86) at PNC Park on Sunday, at 3:05 PM ET.

The favored Pirates (-135 moneyline odds to win) play at home against the Marlins (+114). The over/under for the game is set at 9 total runs.

The betting trends in what follows use the latest odds as of October 1, 2023 at 3:13 PM ET. Ready to bet? Click here to get the best DraftKings Sportsbook deposit bonus!

Pirates vs Marlins Betting Lines

Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total
Pirates -135 +114 9

Pirates Betting Insights

  • The Pirates have won 19, or 61.3%, of the 31 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
  • This season Pittsburgh has won 11 of its 18 games, or 61.1%, when favored by at least -135 on the moneyline.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Pirates have a 57.4% chance to win.
  • So far this season, Pittsburgh and its opponents have hit the over in 86 of 161 games with a total.
  • The Pirates are 83-78-0 ATS in their 161 games with a spread this season.

Pirates Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 5-5
Runs Per Game 6
HR 12
ERA 5.73
K/9 8.9

Marlins Betting Insights

  • The Marlins have been underdogs in 86 games this season and have come away with the win 41 times (47.7%) in those contests.
  • This year, Miami has won 23 of 50 games when listed as at least +114 or worse on the moneyline.
  • The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Marlins have a 46.7% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.
  • Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 75 of its 160 games with a total set by oddsmakers this season.
  • The Marlins are 73-87-0 against the spread in their 160 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Marlins Last 10 Games Trend

Stat Avg/Total
Record 6-4
Runs Per Game 3.7
HR 9
ERA 4.96
K/9 9.2

If you’re looking for a place to bet on the Pirates or Marlins, look no further than DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can use our link to get the best offer for new depositors!

Pirates Probable Pitcher – Andre Jackson

  • Jackson’s team is 3-3-0 against the spread this season in his starts.
  • The right-hander’s last appearance came in relief on Sunday, Sept. 24 when he threw 1 1/3 innings out of the bullpen against the Cincinnati Reds, giving up one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • Jackson has made two starts of five or more innings in six chances this season, and averages 3.2 frames when he pitches.
  • He has six appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 18 chances this season.
  • Jackson’s team is 1-2 this season when he starts and they are the moneyline favorite.
  • In games Jackson has started, his team is 2-4.
  • In games Jackson has started this season, the teams are 3-3-0 at hitting the over.

Pirates Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
David Bednar 64 66.1 78 2.04 0 38
Dauri Moreta 53 57 73 3.79 5 1
Jose Hernandez 49 50.2 62 4.97 5 0
Ryan Borucki 36 40.1 33 2.45 9 0
Carmen Mlodzinski 34 36 34 2.25 10 1

Marlins Probable Pitcher – Braxton Garrett

  • The Marlins are sending Garrett (9-7) to the mound for his 30th start of the season as he goes for his 10th win. He is 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA and 156 strikeouts through 159 2/3 innings pitched.
  • In his last outing on Wednesday against the New York Mets, the lefty threw four innings, giving up four earned runs while surrendering three hits.
  • Garrett enters the matchup with 23 outings of five or more innings pitched this year.
  • He has held his opponents without an earned run in seven of his 31 outings this season.
  • The Marlins have been the moneyline underdog in 13 of Garrett’s starts this season, and they went 8-5 in those games.
  • In Garrett’s 29 starts, his team is 20-9.
  • Garrett’s starts with a set total this season have gone over the run total in 14 of 29 contests.

Marlins Relief Pitchers

Name Relief App. IP Ks ERA Holds Saves
Tanner Scott 69 78 104 2.31 24 12
David Robertson 62 65.1 78 3.03 10 19
Andrew Nardi 59 56.2 72 2.7 17 3
Dylan Floro 59 56.2 58 4.76 9 7
Steven Okert 58 58.2 73 4.45 12 0

Pirates Hitting Trends

  • The Pirates have racked up at least two homers in 40 games this season, and are 30-10 in those contests.
  • Pittsburgh has put up five or more extra-base hits in 32 games this season, and has gone 26-6 in those outings.
  • The club is 55-26 in the games this season it has notched eight or more hits.
  • Pittsburgh has a 48-13 record in games this season when it put up five or more runs.
  • The Pirates are 23-22 in games this season when they have drawn at least five walks.

Marlins Hitting Trends

  • They’ve hit two or more homers in 50 games this season and are 28-22 in those matchups.
  • In 31 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 28-3.
  • They have a record of 69-47 this season when collecting eight or more base hits in a game.
  • In 72 games this season with five or more runs scored, it has posted a record of 58-14.
  • They have won 24 of their 37 games this season in which they’ve drawn more than four free passes.

Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Pirates (-135)
Over/Under Pick: Over (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

Ready to bet? Check out our great offer for new users at DraftKings, no promo code required!

Odds subject to change. Not all offers available in all areas. See DraftKings for offer details, terms and conditions. Must be 21+ to gamble, please wager responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact 1-800-GAMBLER.

PlayPicks Staff Avatar
Written by
PlayPicks Staff

PlayPicks staff has years of sports betting and DFS knowledge and we share all of that with you for free daily.

View all posts by PlayPicks Staff
Privacy Policy